We've got the RBA meeting today in Australia (previews here and here) - announcement due at 0300GMT.

And, in the local financial press today (the Australian Financial Review, which is gated): Rates tipped to hit 1.5% as unemployment soars

The analyst is from Capital Economics:

  • Predicts the RBA's cash rate will be 1.5% by the end of the year
  • Australian economy will grow by just 1.8% in 2015
  • Unemployment to reach 7% by December ... and potentially as high as 7.5% next year
  • Believes the Reserve Bank and economists will be forced to downgrade GDP and inflation forecasts under the increasing weight of the end of the mining investment boom
  • Says the Australian dollar will fall to 70 cents by December, and to 65 cents in 2016

The current economic growth rate mid-point estimate from the RBA is 2.25% (market is around 2.6).

The RBA unemployment forecast is at 6.5% for December 2015 (market is around 6.2%)

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AUD this morning ... just off its lows: