First day of CBOE futures

On the day that the CBOE launched it's futures contract to tepid volume response, the spot bitcoin did not crumble as most feared but instead resumed it's march higher. It might have been lack of meaningful liquidity (see chart of the CBOE contract below).

Looking at the 5-minute chart of the spot bitcoin below, the cryptocurrency had traded above and below its 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5-minute chart (blue and green lines), and also below a downward sloping trend line for most of the New York session. That is bearish, but on the downside, the momentum was limited too - stalling near a lower upward sloping trend line (green lower trend line).

Eventually, the 100 and 200 bar MAs (blue and green MA lines) and the upper trend line (see red numbered circles), was broken and the traders started to turn the momentum back to the upside. The move has taken the pair to a high of $17,426.40 so far. We currently trade at $17,261.

Risk now?

The close risk for buyers can be the old highs at the $16,965-$17,030 area, or traders can also use the 100 and 200 bar MA s at the $16,557-$16,592 area as a risk defining level. Stay above the MAs and the bulls remain in control. Move below and the break and run higher fails.

Buyers are back in full control and the close risk levels have been set.

PS. the Bitcoin futures did not reach new highs on the last move higher. How come?

Note the price of the bitcoin futures is higher than the spot bitcoin. This is because the futures are for forward value. The market is putting a premium for the future value.

Some of the premium may be for the cost of carry. Some may be a speculative premium. It may also be mis-priced as a result of the low liquidity.

Whatever, the case, the last move higher did not take out the high for the day. Did the market get ahead of itself earlier in the day? It seems like it might have - or that can be an explanation.

What we do know, nevertheless, is day 1 for the futures is nearly done and although the volume might be disappointing, the sellers did not come in and force the price down. Buyers remain in control in the spot market, and in the futures market too.