Canada ‘poised’ to rule on Nexen/Progress takeovers

Author: Adam Button | Category: news

Author: Adam Button

The Globe & Mail is reporting the latest on the Canadian energy takeovers.

Ottawa is expected to release the decisions by the end of day Monday, and perhaps as early as Friday, though the ruling could encounter last-minute snags and be delayed further.

The article doesn’t suggest any inside sources so it might simply be speculation. If anything, the article makes me more worried of a rejection but I could be reading too much between the lines.

Overall, I expect the deals to be approved and I highlighted some fishy trading in Nexen yesterday that points to the same.

I guess that the market is 80% priced in favor of the deal, maybe higher. If it it were rejected, it would send USD/CAD to 1.01 and beyond. My trade would be to buy USD/CAD and ride it.

If the takeovers are approved, USD/CAD will fall but how much might depend on the contents of the ruling. Along with the main verdict, the government will release a framework for decisions on future foreign takeovers. If it sounds reasonably friendly to foreign money, there is talk of a wave of CAD-positive M&A.

Update: Comments are now crossing suggesting the government will ‘give notice’ before announcing the outcome of  the Nexen agreement. Translation: they will set a time.