It's a big day for data from China (and the national Congress continues too)

This lot all due at 0200 GMT:

Q3 GDP

  • expected is +6.8% y/y
  • prior was +6.9% y/y
  • expected 1.7% q/q, prior 1.7% q/q

September activity data:

  • Industrial Production y/y expected is 6.5%, prior was 6.0%
  • Industrial production YTD y/y expected is 6.7%, prior was 6.7%
  • Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD y/y, expected is 7.7%, prior was 7.8%
  • Retail Sales y/y, expected is 10.2%, prior was 10.1%
  • Retail Sales YTD y/y, expected is 10.3%, prior was 10.4%

Previews:

Westpac:

  • In the June quarter, Chinese GDP recorded a third consecutive upside surprise, with annual growth of 6.9%. Versus authorities' 2017 target of "around 6.5%yr", the six months to June was certainly a strong start.
  • Come the September quarter, this momentum has endured. The PMIs continue to report robust momentum across both the manufacturing and services sector, with broad-based support from domestic and external demand.
  • Looking forward, the key downside risk to growth is that subdued employment growth caps momentum in household spending. In the near term, it is unlikely to be significant. However, should household incomes not grow in a robust fashion, it could become a bigger cause for concern. In 2018, investment is also likely to be providing less support.

TD Securities:

  • The PMI suite (manufacturing, non-manufacturing, official and Caixin) actually recovered from 52 in Q2 to 52.3 in Q3. However, real activity indicators lost momentum between Q2 and Q3: the average of IP and retail sales eased from 9.2%/yr to 8.6%/yr while the BBG GDP proxy eased from 7.3%/yr to 6.9%/yr.

HSBC:

  • GDP likely grew by 6.7% y-o-y in Q3 17 compared with 6.9% in Q2 17.
  • Economic activity softened somewhat over the past two months, impacted by a cooling housing market, financial de-leveraging policies and tougher environmental regulations.
  • While we expect growth momentum to slow further towards the end of the year, we think the strength in the manufacturing sector, particularly the private sector, will ensure that growth remains supported.

Nomura:

  • We expect GDP growth to slow slightly to 6.8% y-o-y in Q3 from 6.9% in H1, dragged by the cooling property sector.
  • For September activity data, we expect industrial production growth to rebound slightly after a sharp moderation in August, supported by stable growth in trade and industrial profit.
  • Fixed asset investment growth should moderate further on cooling property investment, and consumption growth is likely to rebound partly due to last year's low base.

Barclays:

  • We expect industrial production growth to edge higher to 6.5%, as signalled by improved manufacturing PMI, while fixed asset investment growth is likely to have remained broadly stable, as an expected rebound in manufacturing investment offsets a moderation in infrastructure and real estate investment.
  • Growth in retail sales likely remained steady at 10.1%.
  • Given the average IP growth for July-August of 6.2% and a likely rebound in September activity, we expect a gradual slowdown in growth to 6.8% y/y (6.5% q/q saar) in Q3 from 6.9% y/y (6.9% q/q saar) in Q2.

(bolding above is mine for emphasis)