From Japan today we get CPI, unemployment, household spending, industrial production, retail sales, vehicle production. Oh, and Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will be having a chat with us too.

OK ... here we go:

Make note ... the first lot of Japanese data hits the wires at 2330GMT, not the more regular 2350GMT. This is quite unusual for Japanese data, so note this carefully (don't ask me why I am stressing this ... :-( )

  • 2330GMT Overall Household Spending y/y for January, expected is -4.1%, prior was -3.4%
  • 2330GMT Jobless Rate for January, expected is 3.4%, prior was 3.4%
  • 2330GMT Job-To-Applicant Ratio for January, expected is 1.15, prior was 1.15

Inflation data

  • 2330GMT National CPI y/y for January, expected is 2.4%, prior was 2.4%
  • 2330GMT National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food for January, expected is 2.3%, prior was 2.5% (this is 'core inflation and is the measure the BOJ use)
  • 2330GMT National CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y for January, expected is 2.1%, prior was 2.1% (this is 'core-core' inflation and is the measure one adviser to PM Abe is suggesting the BOJ use)
  • 2330GMT Tokyo CPI y/y for February, expected is 2.2%, prior was 2.3% (Yes, the Tokyo CPI data is available a month earlier than the National CPI.)
  • 2330GMT Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food y/y for February, expected is 2.2%, prior was 2.2%
  • 2330GMT Tokyo CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y for February, expected is 1.7%, prior was 1.7%

OK, now that you've noted the CPI data comes out at 2330GMT, not 2350GMT, note also ...

  • The Bank of Japan has estimated that the sales tax hike - to 8 percent from 5 percent on April 1 - added 1.7 percentage points to the annual consumer inflation rate in April, and 2.0 points from the following month.

K? So ya gotta subtract 2 from these numbers to get the inflation rate ...

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OK, more data ... at the more regular 2350GMT

  • 2350GMT Industrial Production m/m for January (preliminary reading), expected is +2.7%, prior was +0.8%
  • 2350GMT Industrial Production y/y for January (preliminary), expected is -3.1%, prior was +0.1%
  • 2350GMT Retail Trade for January m/m, expected is -0.4%, prior -0.3%
  • 2350GMT Retail Trade for January y/y, expected is -3.1%, prior +0.2%

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0230GMT - Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda speaks at the Japan National Press Club in Tokyo

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0400GMT - January vehicle production y/y, prior was -2.5%

0500GMT - January housing starts y/y, expected is -11.6%, prior was -14.7%