Kaplan publishes essay
- While I believe that these recent readings on inflation are likely not indicative of a weakening trend, I intend to be patient and open minded in assessing upcoming data releases in this regard.
- I intend to be patient in critically assessing upcoming data to evaluate whether we are continuing to make progress in reaching our inflation objective
- Will be closely watching Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean in months ahead
- We are moving very close to full employment in the U.S
- "Gradual and patient" means to me that I need to be open to assessing incoming economic information in order to update my analysis regarding the appropriate stance of economic policy. I will avoid being rigid or unduly predetermined in my views.
The newswire headlines on Kaplan's speech are hawkish but the actual text shows that he's worried about low inflation and not as confident as he was before.
On oil:
- I would expect continued price volatility but within a roughly stable band of the mid-$40s to the mid-$50s for the remainder of 2017.
- Oil contacts see substantial potential supply upside of the Permian Basin in the years ahead.
- Survey participants report that, in a number of locations, current market prices are sufficiently above breakeven levels to encourage further rig count growth, particularly in the Permian Basin
- The Permian currently produces approximately 2.3 million barrels per day.With technological advances, many of our contacts believe that the Permian can expand production substantially in the years ahead.
From the sounds of his commentary, he's very optimistic about rising US oil supply.
