Near 50% of the month long trading range
The USDCAD is hanging around the 100 and 200 hour MA (blue and green line in chart below) at the 1.2502 and 1.2508 levels, respectively. The pair is also not far from the 50% retracement of the month of trading range from the February 3 low to the February 11 high at the 1.25234 level This area will be the bullish and bearish line in the sand for the USDCAD through the decision. I would expect that the decision should push the price away from this area. For an excellent preview of the decision from Adam, click HERE.
If the statement is "less dovish" (i.e. no cut, no forward guidance for an imminent cut), I would expect a move toward the 1.2420-30 area. This is a number of swing lows for the pair over the last month of trading. A move to this would give the pair a 110 pip trading range for the day. Below that the 1.2387 and month long lows at 1.2350-60 become targets (see chart above).
On a more dovish statement (or a surprise cut) the 1.2564 (38.2%) would be the next upside target. A move above opens the door for a move toward 1.2622 over time. If by chance they do cut (this is not expected), a move to that level is not out of the question. So be aware.
