Finds support buyers near 50% of move up yesterday.

The USDJPY reversed higher in trading yesterday and in the process moved above a swing level in the 110.62-72 area. The price also move above the 100 hour MA for the first times since March 14th.

Today, the rally stalled near topside trend line connecting recent highs. The wander lower did fall below the 100 hour MA but could not get below the swing area (at 110.62-72). The fall also stalled near the 50% of the move up (110.74 is that level). The price is down on the day. The price is nearer the lowest level since November, but there are small bullish developments.

It is hard to say the technical picture is anything but in a consolidation phase, but what would give traders more buying confidence?

  • The last hourly bar used the 100 hour MA as support. Stay above that line would help the bullish technical picture
  • Get positive on the day. The close was 111.128.
  • Trend line at 111.24 currently
  • 200 hour MA at 111.46. The price has not traded above that MA since March 15th.

Other things that would help....

  • The pair has been following US yields. The 10 year is down by 3.4 bps today to 2.383%. The low reached 2.34% earlier this week. The yield needs to start moving back above the 2.4% level and looking like 2.5% is more in the cards
  • Stocks moving higher would also be a help.
  • Gold is sitting around unchanged today. If were to give up some of the recent gains, it might lead to more dollar buying.

Technically, the last 5 days shows a little bit of everything from a technical perspective. The buyers are trying to take more control above the 100 hour MA (and swing level), but they are not fully in open waters that is for sure.