Lower on the day after the topside trend line held.

We are seeing a lot of up and down waffling today. The FOMC will start their two day meeting and the market is looking forward to the start of the US balance sheet unwind. The decision will be at 2 PM, followed by an hour or so of Chair Yellen. The Fed will also release central tendencies for inflation, growth and employment. Impacts of the dual hurricanes should have an dampening effect in the short term with an increase further out.

The point is, there will be lots of Fed stuff tomorrow. Today is likely to be impacted by "squaring up" flows as traders position themselves for the risk event. So be aware.

Having said that, technicals can come into play.

Looking at the hourly chart of the USDJPY, the market has been following a topside trend line over the last few trading days. On Friday the pair stalled near the line. Yesterday the price reached for the higher line and fell just short. Today, the "reach higher" was able to touch the line and sellers leaned. That line came in at 111.87 and that is where the price stalled .

Why did it stall there?

One reason...because risk could be defined and limited against that line.

If the line did not hold, traders would have "lost a little" (stops on a break of the trend line).

If the line held, traders stood to "make more than a little".

That is the name of the game for traders/trading. Risk a little to make more than a little.

The price just reached to a new low as I typed at 111.34. The price closed yesterday at 111.553. We are lower on the day. Watch the 111.55 level as risk intraday. The price move lower today stalled at the level before breaking below in the last hour or so of trading. Stay below keeps the sellers intraday more in control. A move back above and the waters are in that day before Fed muddy stage.

On the downside, if the price can continue the wander lower, the 100 day MA at 111.11 (easy to remember), will likely stall the fall.

Yesterday, the price moved above that key MA line and stayed above. Like the topside trend line, it is a level where traders can risk a little a make more than a little (with stops on a break).