What do we really expect from Trump's speech on Tuesday?
The event at the top of everyone's calendar today is Trump's Tuesday evening speech to Congress.
It's key because we're entering the transition phase of Trump's Presidency from vague promises to specific plans and proposals. It could be a rocky road.
Trump touted the unveiling of a 'phenomenal' plan in 2-3 weeks. That was 3 weeks ago and nothing that looks like a plan has been released. Mnuchin said on Sunday that Trump will be "touching on tax reform" in his speech.
The focus looks like it has shifted to Obamacare.
"We're going to be speaking very specifically about a very complicated subject," Trump said on the weekend regarding health care. "I think we have something that is really going to be excellent."
Like all politicians, Trump is excellent at sloganeering but he never speaks about the details.
"There is only so long the market will bid the dollar higher on the promise of something," Stuart Bennett, head of Group-of-10 currency strategy at Banco Santander told Bloomberg today. "They will want detail. And if it's not forthcoming, then it's a little bit like the boy who cried wolf."
I disagree. Is the market wise to expect any kind of clarity on Tuesday? I expect more of the same kind of classic Trump. At best, some papers/plans will be published at the same time as his speech (or before).
I think the market will still be forgiving because inevitably there will be details. However they arrive, they'll be scrutinized and that's when the trouble for the dollar and stocks could really start.
Update: Here's Trump today:
"Nobody knew that healthcare could be so complicated," he said. "I have to tell you, it's an unbelievably complex subject," Trump said after the meeting at the White House.
