New York Fed survey sees one-year inflation expectations at 2.9%

A major debate at the Fed and in markets at the moment is about which is right: Market-based or survey-based measures of inflation.

Consumers aren't a great predictor of future inflation but the Fed is unworried about market-based measures like TIPS breakevens that show disinflationary trouble.

What could change that is if the trend in survey data begins to slow. That doesn't appear to be the case in the latest data with a New York Fed survey showing consumer inflation expectations at 2.93% in one year, down (but only slightly) from 2.98% last month.

Spending expectations slowed to 4.1% from 4.8%