Cold and snow could skew US economic picture
Desks are passing around a WSJ story today that warns about the impact of a cold, snowy winter.
US economic data was severely depressed in 2014 by a nasty winter. This year has been better but still harsh and that could carve a rut into economic data.
"Recent data on housing starts and builder confidence suggest many builders in winter-prone areas are taking a breather, which will slow first-quarter growth on the margin," the WSJ reports.
New England has been especially hard hit but some economists note that the winter in the western US has been especially light and could make up the shortfall. Others note that what hurt Q1 last year was a halt in inventory building but this year's winter hasn't been harsh enough put a kink in the supply chain.
The Feb Chicago PMI on Thursday may offer an early indication but the bigger factor will be the weather going forward. The near-term outlook is good with some cold temperatures in the Northeast until Tuesday and then improving.
With everyone closely watching the US, the real weather surprise this year may be Canada. It's been a brutally cold winter across most of the country and that could make the economy look even worse than it is.
