–End-of-Quarter Surge ‘Routine'; Claims +25%, Seasonals Expected +17%

By Denny Gulino and Kevin Kastner

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Initial claims for U.S. state unemployment
benefits jumped 27,000 to 412,000 in the April 9 week due to a routine
end-of-quarter change, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday, that
nevertheless was not anticipated by forecasters.

According to a Labor Department analyst, seasonal factors had
expected a 17% or roughly 65,000 rise in unadjusted claims “which always
surge at the end of a calendar quarter.” Instead, unadjusted claims rose
25% or 89,686, to 443,503.

In a Market News International survey expectations had centered on
a drop of 2,000 initial claims from the originally reported 382,000 for
the April 2 week, which was revised upward to 385,000 in the latest
report.

Claims surge at the end of the calendar quarter, the analyst said,
for two reasons. Some claimants wait for a new quarter of wages to file,
since benefit levels are calibrated by the previous four quarters of
earnings and the latest quarter may raise the average. And filing
offices have to review a previous quarter’s record for any earnings in
the case of emergency unemployment beneficiaries to see if they need to
be returned to a non-emergency schedule.

The four-week moving average rose 5,500 to 395,750 in the April 9
week after adjustment. A year earlier it was at 465,250.

In the April 2 week, continuing claims fell by 58,000 to 3,680,000,
the lowest since Sept 27, 2008.

Unadjusted continuing claims fell by 166,483 to 3,919,184 in the
April 2 week and were well below the 4,987,473 level reported a year
earlier.

The state data released for the April 2 week point to declines in
the number of unadjusted claims in 21 states and territories, and a rise
in 32.

The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate dropped a
tenth to 2.9% from the previous week, compared to 3.7% a year
earlier.

The unemployment rate among the insured labor force is well below
that reported monthly by the Labor Department because claims are
approved for the most part only for job losers, not the job leavers and
labor force reentrants included in the monthly report.

The Labor Department said that the level of unadjusted Emergency
Unemployment Compensation benefits claims fell by 12,245 in the March 26
week, bringing that category to 3,550,786. Extended benefits claims rose
by 52,323 to 760,402, not seasonally adjusted in the same week.

The Labor Department reported that a total of 8,517,545 persons
claimed unemployment benefits in the March 26 week, a decline of 6,910
from the previous week and well below the 11,180,861 persons in the
comparable week a year ago. These data are not seasonally adjusted, and
include regular state claims, federal employee claims, new veterans
claims, the EUC and extended benefits programs, state additional
benefits, and STC/Workshare claims.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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