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Last sell-off in early Asia has ‘capitulative feel’

By Sean Lee  || July 3, 2009 at 02:36 GMT
|| 3 comments || Add comment

I like to look for moves which have a feel of capitulation about them and the sell-off in the JPY crosses after the bell in NY certainly has a little of that feel. EUR/JPY got really close to technical support at 133.50 but in spite of stops tight below there, the market couldn’t quite get at them. Perhaps what the NY equity market witnessed was the last of the nervous speculative longs bailing out and we can now revert to a normal up-trend recovery. I certainly hope so. I’m long EUR/JPY and have added some this morning. I will cut half of my position if the market breaks below 133.30.

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3 Responses to “Last sell-off in early Asia has ‘capitulative feel’”

  1. Michael Miller on July 3rd, 2009 03:00 GMT

    Sean, hopefully we’ll get an extra push to the upside from London when they realize that the US sell off was uncalled for. It amazes me how US equity investors can buy into bad news after bad news, but can’t pull the trigger on the best (relevant) news of the year.

  2. Sean Lee on July 3rd, 2009 03:06 GMT

    Well I hope you’re right Mike. I have seen it so many times, stupid exhaustive moves during the Sydney twilight zone when there is no liquidity. My overall feel is that there is still a large amount of money waiting on the sidelines and sooner or later this money is going to come back into the market and this will drive equity markets higher. But I’m talking my book as usual. 3 guys rang me this morning and said this was the beginning of the next big risk aversion move. If those 3 guys agree on anything, then they must all be wrong!!

  3. Michael Miller on July 3rd, 2009 03:24 GMT

    Well, my short term chart indicators keep sinking while the trend’s rising. That’s bullish. I don’t see anything stopping the progress.



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