AUTOREFRESH 
Cable holding up well so far
By Gerry Davies || July 14, 2009 at 07:30 GMT
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Cable is holding up pretty well in increasingly choppy trade, presently at 1.6280. The earlier sell-off from the 1.6298 session high saw Russia as a notable seller.
Technical resistance remains at 1.6295/00. Gotta be some stops not far north of there, although I can’t confirm as such.
Have a dry weekend all 
Lot’s of technical +ve’s for Cable on the hourly chart today having broken above the 24, 100 and 200 MA’s along with ADX +DI but RSI and MACD are lagging somewhat. An inverse H&S looks a disticnt possibility too. (Jul 10 shoulder, 13 Jul head)
Cable:- Inverse H&S in the making http://www.pict.com/view/1170398/0/cableh2bs1407
Here’s the plan: Long against a break and hourly close above the grey t’line, initial SL below the RHS low.
Plan B:- Short again the neckline now or close below it, SL above 9th Jul high … hmmm.
All I can see is lots of fundamental -ves for cable.
But maybe not in the next hour
The RICS numbers are nothing to have got excited about. The trend will be unsustainable, and with the number of unemployed still rising, forced selling will increase and prices will fall back again.
The BOE’s decision last week not to extend QE appears to have already pushed mortgage costs higher.
And there’s already evidence that a weaker currency would attract the foreign interest that is needed to fund the budget deficit – foreigners have been net sellers of gilts for the past 3 months.
And what with our shambles that calls itself a government’s failure to detail its spending plans, investor confidence in the U.K. is only likely to decline further.
As the IMF have already pointed out, ours is the only developed country with no fiscal ammunition left if the economy falls further into recession, in which case, a weak pound will be essential.
OK- OK. You can let go of my arm now, lilac. Looking at the historical and current open orders long – short ratio, retail has flipped net long. The odds then favour a short from here.
Gone short @ 1.6330 ; )
I’m still undecided but your’s is a really good entry for a short, if that’s what you fancy. The close on 3rd Jul was 1.6324 and bar the quick spike up through there it’s back down pronto. MACD histo shows no strength in this move so far.
Cheers, mate! Had to walk the walk…and have the same impression, no UMPH in this move up…unless the Golden Sacks start(ed) buying ; )
It’s the Inv. H&S that’s puts me off. The danger is that Swissy may be forming a wedge with double bottom and declining t’line from 10th inst. A break through the lows and all hell could break loose!
Any thoughts on the W?
I have a teeny bit of headroom left on mine.
Here’s the chart:- http://www.pict.com/view/1171841/0/swissywedgy1407
W … Is this the DJIA?
The formation on cable.
Not at all sure about the technicals, but if you take the start of the lower range, i.e. 1.6430 on 3 July, and draw lines top and bottom, the range could be working itself into a wedgy thing?
Possibly a bearish Gartley setup
Plenty of Bear-Div on 1hr , IF break above 6400 in wall street and retest on 15-5 m will keep rising, IF not, any 1 hr 3 bar break ( LL/LH) or clear breakdown previous 4 bar, and wall street range to slide , it’s a short all day……..that ’s my intra plan today.
I thought I’d throw my 2 bob in.
I’m with you there Millward, as divergence has generally lead the way forward lately. The hourly chart for both the shorter and longer term MA’s still support price above here but ADX is dropping, +DI is falling back and -DI is rising. MACD div. says hold off buying here and RSI is close to O/B. From all that it says to me to buy a dip rather than anything else. It’s not really clear here so I’ll hang on this one.
Blackday……….I have 6400 Big level……plenty of short-covering just above….I don’t know what the volume has been like in the euro/sess, but, now is’nt a bad time to offload some intra-long’s before tommorrow FOMC…..and if after a solid trending day on yesterday from the street, I’m not expecting much before then.
Maybe a good trailing stop to the downside is in order? CAN’T KNOW FOR SURE.
Maybe wait until tomorrow seeing that you’ve reminded me of the FOMC. Jump into short USDJPY instead for now …
If we don´t break below 1.6270 soon I might close parts and lock in small profits…there seems to quite some buying interest there…
ADX now -ve, safe. MACD x-over down and histo below zero. Things are looking up … erm, I mean down … I mean up if you’re short .. errr anyway, if I trade Cable what I most like to see it that price immediately scampers from my entry point putting me into the black giving me breathing space otherwise I’m just like some crazed asthmatic after running a marathon. In the event of it ever moving against me, an oxygen mask automatically drops from the ceiling.
Does it have a cut-out for the nose?
PS My hourly MACD looked like it wanted to cross down, but it seems to have changed its mind now :S
And the histo’s still on a weeny green dot.
Cheers, Blacky…I had put in a stop at 1.6270 for half the lot and got hit…can live with that for now…if I have to reload shorts, it will be above 1.64…but that´s for tomorrow…
You add up all the indicators and what do we get? A bounce …. but of course that’s Cable for you.
Told you the hourly was doin’ a Carlsberg …
Well I’m doin’ a runner … see you tomoorow
Enjoy it, Marathon-man ; )
Ooops.
Did I mention that the maccie Ds have crossed down now?
nothing, and i mean NOTHING, beats sausage egg mcmuffin
Yeh well, mcmullet’s deffo off the menu tonight.