US DATA REACT: Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics says
this week’s jobless claims was the first “clean read on claims after
weeks of weather and other distortions (Labor Dept said not special
factors at work in the weekly claims ending March 13).” The data was
disappointing in that claims first reached the current level nearly 4
months ago (in late November) “and the lack of progress since then is
disconcerting,” he says. Claims are “too high to be consistent with
increases in private payrolls, though we accept other indications of
employment trends are stronger,” Shepherdson says. New layoffs appear to
be coming from the small business sector, which remains depressed, he
says. “Either way, a layoff is a layoff, and there are still too many of
them,” Shepherdson adds.