Author: Greg Michalowski
5

Jordan's comment in Le Temp

He adds:
  • SNB to maintain policy of negative rates, interventions
  • SNB has leeway to maneuver on balance sheet if needed
The comments are in line with what is standard.

Technically, the EURCHF trades around 1.1000. The high for the year has reached 1.1087. The highs from 2016 reached 111.28 and 1.1198.  The low in 2016 reached 1.06321. The low in 2016 reached 1.0618.  

In July, the price moved above the 1.0980-86.  That area was a ceiling going back to 2016 and also the May 2017 high  Since the break there has been a couple tests of that old ceiling (see red circle 4 and 5 in the chart below).  Holding above that area keeps the buyers in control. 

Of course back in early 2015, the SNB stopped supporting the EURCHF at the 1.2000 level and the price tumble to below parity at 1.000 to a low of 0.9705. The high corrective price then was the 2016 high at 1.11984.  


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Author: Mike Paterson

ECB's Mersch: As conditions normalise it's unlikely that unconventional policies will remain necessary

ECB's Merch speaking at Bank Negara, Malaysia 24 July Speech entitled "Central banking in times of technological progress" Says Mersch: The first important consideration for monetary policy relates not to any particular technology, but to the overall rate of technological progress. As the technological frontier shifts outwards, and that knowledge diffuses across the economy, overall productivity increases. That increased productivity affects the rate of return on investment and hence the level of real equilibrium

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Author: Mike Paterson
7

ECB eyeing October as most likely month for QE decision

So say "sources" cited by Reuters 21 July - December too late even if staff have flagged it as an option Reuters citing four sources "with direct knowledge of the discussion". Treat the comments as you see fit. I'm posting because it's out there.

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Author: Mike Paterson
4

ECB Q3 Survey: 2017 GDP and core inflation revised upwards

Results of the Q3 2017 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters 21 July - HICP inflation expectations have been revised downwards for 2017, 2018 and 2019. Longer-term HICP inflation expectations remain unchanged at 1.8%. Full results

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
11

More from RBA's Debelle: Says rising AUD is not welcome

Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, his earlier speech is here: RBA's Debelle: Australian rates do not have to rise in line with global peers Q&A now:

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
4

Heads up AUD traders - another RBA speech due soon (0415GMT)

Nothing like a 100 points or so each time the RBA mouths off this week. Due at 0415GMT, Michele Bullock, Assistant Governor (Financial System), at the Melbourne Institute/The Australian Economic & Social Policy Conference.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Heads up for an RBA speech due at 0240GMT

 Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Speaking on Global Influences on Domestic Monetary Policy Coming up in just a few minutes time!

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

PBOC sets USD/CNY mid-point today at 6.7415 (vs. yesterday at 6.7464)

People's Bank of China reference rate for the RMB against the USD today, stronger for the yuan Open market operations, the PBOC to: - to inject 100 bn yuan via 7 day reverse repos 100bn yuan mature today (for RRs), thus a net 40 bn yuan injection

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
7

BOJ says goodbye to two persistent dissenters

Yesterday's policy decision by the Bank of Japan was passed by a 7 to 2 vote  Takahide Kiuchi and Takehiro Sato were the "2", as they pretty much usually were.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
4

Australia press: "False alarm on new RBA 'normal' rate"

In the Australian Financial Review today: OK. So it was just a run of the mill communication ****-up from the RBA then. Thanks for clearing that up. AFR piece is here in full, may be gated:

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Author: Adam Button
48

Draghi is losing the battle to hold down the euro

Draghi tries to stay dovish The market can sense when a central banker has played his final card. Draghi is still talking about the potential to do more. He is carefully avoiding anything that could be a hint of a hiking down the road.

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Author: Adam Button
1

South Africa cuts rates to 6.75% from 7.00%

South Africa lowers rates - 4 members voted for rate cut - Future decisions depend on data - Risks to growth forecasts on the downside This was a surprise, no change was expected.

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Author: Adam Button
36

Draghi Q&A: We were unanimous in no changes to forward guidance

Draghi answers questions - We were unanimous in not outlining a timeline [on tapering] - We aren't there yet - We need patience - Longer-term yields have risen but are still low by historical standards This jump in the euro is starting to look more like dip-buying than a reaction to anything Draghi is saying. EUR/USD quickly up to 1.1550.

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