Author: Greg Michalowski
1

SF Fed president speaks to reporters after speech in San Francisco

He adds:
  • doesn't see incipient inflation pressures;no signs in wage data of inflation surge
  • could change rate view if economy evolves differently
  • not concerned about slope of yield curve
  • central bank policies put downward pressure on rates
  • repeats 3 rate hikes in 2018 makes sense. Could see more or less dependent on the economy
  • global growth convergence to reduce dollar volatility
  • reiterates sees 2.25% to 2.5% growth in 2018
Williams is a voting member on the FOMC board this year.

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Author: Greg Michalowski

Fed's Williams: US economy moving from headwinds to tailwinds

Speaking in SF He adds: Williams is a voting member on the 2018 FOMC.  There is a little wiggle to the upside in the US dollar off the comments. The USDCHF is trading at new session highs. The EURUSD has dipped back toward the session lows (traded to 1.22185).

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Fed's Williams: US economy moving from headwinds to tailwinds


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: Central Banks
0


Speaking in SF He adds: Williams is a voting member on the 2018 FOMC.  There is a little wiggle to the upside in the US dollar off the comments. The USDCHF is trading at new session highs. The EURUSD has dipped back toward the session lows (traded to 1.22185).

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UK December retail sales mm -1.5 % vs -1.0% exp
Asset 41

Author: Adam Button
2

Fed's Quarles lays out roadmap for easing bank regulations

Quarles at a conference - Intends to ease burden of Fed stress test - Leverage ratio proposal coming 'relatively soon' - Wants to dial back burden of bank living wills The regulatory capture of the Fed by banks is once-again complete.

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Fed's Quarles lays out roadmap for easing bank regulations


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
2
Quarles at a conference - Intends to ease burden of Fed stress test - Leverage ratio proposal coming 'relatively soon' - Wants to dial back burden of bank living wills The regulatory capture of the Fed by banks is once-again complete.

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Author: Greg Michalowski
1

The NY Fed GDP Nowcast estimate for 4Q up to 3.94% from 3.88%

Still remains at the upper extreme of GDP estimates The NY Fed is out with their latest estimate for 4Q GDP growth. The current week estimates growth at 3.94% vs 3.8% last week.  Capacity utilization, industrial production and data revisions contributed to the gain this week.  Subtracting was building permits and housing starts. 

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The NY Fed GDP Nowcast estimate for 4Q up to 3.94% from 3.88%


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: Central Banks
1
Still remains at the upper extreme of GDP estimates The NY Fed is out with their latest estimate for 4Q GDP growth. The current week estimates growth at 3.94% vs 3.8% last week.  Capacity utilization, industrial production and data revisions contributed to the gain this week.  Subtracting was building permits and housing starts. 

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Author: Adam Button

US January prelim U Mich consumer sentiment 94.4 vs 97.0 expected

Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan - Prior was 95.9 - Current conditions 109.2 vs 113.8 prior - Expectations 84.8 vs 84.3 prior - 5-10 year inflation 2.5% vs 2.4% This was the first look at January sentiment. It was on the disappointing side, especially given the rally in stocks, but the dollar got some good news from the inflation expectations numbers. And that's something the Fed is watching closely.

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US January prelim U Mich consumer sentiment 94.4 vs 97.0 expected


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan - Prior was 95.9 - Current conditions 109.2 vs 113.8 prior - Expectations 84.8 vs 84.3 prior - 5-10 year inflation 2.5% vs 2.4% This was the first look at January sentiment. It was on the disappointing side, especially given the rally in stocks, but the dollar got some good news from the inflation expectations numbers. And that's something the Fed is watching closely.

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Author: Mike Paterson

Bank of Italy see 2018 GDP growth of around 1.4%, same as 2017

BOI out with latest forecasts 19 Jan - 2017 expectation of 1.4% is lower than 1.5% govt f/c - 2019 and 2020 f/c 1.2% - Italian GDP/deficit ration probably lower in 2017 Not going to change any fx prices but one for background info.

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Bank of Italy see 2018 GDP growth of around 1.4%, same as 2017


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: Central Banks
0
BOI out with latest forecasts 19 Jan - 2017 expectation of 1.4% is lower than 1.5% govt f/c - 2019 and 2020 f/c 1.2% - Italian GDP/deficit ration probably lower in 2017 Not going to change any fx prices but one for background info.

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Author: Adam Button
1

Canadian Fin Min fretted after BOC hikes but a staff report told him to calm down

Memo said rate hikes wouldn't hurt economy Last summer, the Canadian government and Bank of Canada had two distinct views on the economy. The government was worried and a huge stimulus package was just starting to help; the BOC was ready to hike rates.

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Canadian Fin Min fretted after BOC hikes but a staff report told him to calm down


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
1
Memo said rate hikes wouldn't hurt economy Last summer, the Canadian government and Bank of Canada had two distinct views on the economy. The government was worried and a huge stimulus package was just starting to help; the BOC was ready to hike rates.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

The European Central Bank meet next week - what to expect

A preview of the ECB meeting on January 25 2017, via RBC The RBC note is a detailed one, this is a summary only, any bolding is mine Changes are coming but not just yet 

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The European Central Bank meet next week - what to expect


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
A preview of the ECB meeting on January 25 2017, via RBC The RBC note is a detailed one, this is a summary only, any bolding is mine Changes are coming but not just yet 

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

SG on the BoE - "not at all trying to suppress GBP strength"

Société Générale on EUR/GBP and what to expect - touching on both European Central Bank and Bank of England in the remarks (bolding mine) ---

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SG on the BoE - "not at all trying to suppress GBP strength"


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
Société Générale on EUR/GBP and what to expect - touching on both European Central Bank and Bank of England in the remarks (bolding mine) ---

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Author: Adam Button

Fed's Dudley: Economy can grow at above trend rate

Dudley in the FT - There are arguments for hiking or waiting - Financial conditions are very accommodative - "Three rate hikes in 2018 seems a very reasonable type of forecast" ... it could move .

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Fed's Dudley: Economy can grow at above trend rate


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
0
Dudley in the FT - There are arguments for hiking or waiting - Financial conditions are very accommodative - "Three rate hikes in 2018 seems a very reasonable type of forecast" ... it could move .

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Author: Greg Michalowski

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 4Q growth rises to 3.4% from 3.3% last

Up from Friday's estimate In their words: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is  on January 18, up from 3.3 percent on January 12. The fourth-quarter forecast of real consumer spending growth increased from 3.8 percent to 4.0 percent after Wednesday's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

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The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 4Q growth rises to 3.4% from 3.3% last


Author: Greg Michalowski
Category: Central Banks
0
Up from Friday's estimate In their words: The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is  on January 18, up from 3.3 percent on January 12. The fourth-quarter forecast of real consumer spending growth increased from 3.8 percent to 4.0 percent after Wednesday's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

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Author: Adam Button
7

ECB's Coeure: Eurozone is in expansion, no longer recovery

Coeure upbeat in a panel discussion in Frankfurt Well then, why are you still buying bonds and why are interest rates below zero?

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ECB's Coeure: Eurozone is in expansion, no longer recovery


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
7
Coeure upbeat in a panel discussion in Frankfurt Well then, why are you still buying bonds and why are interest rates below zero?

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Author: Mike Paterson

South African Reserve Bank say CPI risks reduced in recent weeks

SAR beginning the latest rate policy statement 18 Jan - wage increases to continue to drive inflation - The average inflation forecast for 2017 is unchanged at 5.3% but the average forecast has been revised downwards for 2018 & 2019 to 4.9% & 5.4% respectively from 5.2% & 5.5% previously. Inflation is expected to average 5.5% in the final quarter of 2019 FYI the actual decision comes at the end not the start but expected to stay on hold at 6.75%

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South African Reserve Bank say CPI risks reduced in recent weeks


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: Central Banks
0
SAR beginning the latest rate policy statement 18 Jan - wage increases to continue to drive inflation - The average inflation forecast for 2017 is unchanged at 5.3% but the average forecast has been revised downwards for 2018 & 2019 to 4.9% & 5.4% respectively from 5.2% & 5.5% previously. Inflation is expected to average 5.5% in the final quarter of 2019 FYI the actual decision comes at the end not the start but expected to stay on hold at 6.75%

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Author: Mike Paterson
9

BUBA's Weidmann says reduced German growth potential could lead to lower long-term rates

BUBA head Wiedmann out with scheduled speech at IMF 18 Jan - marked Reduction In German Growth Potential Could Translate Into Lower Long-Term Interest Rates - indicators Of Labour Market Slack Would Suggest Higher Wage Settlements More dovish-tinged rhetoric out of EZ talking heads but in Weidmann's case being justifiably cautious rather than a U-turn in stance.

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BUBA's Weidmann says reduced German growth potential could lead to lower long-term rates


Author: Mike Paterson
Category: Central Banks
9
BUBA head Wiedmann out with scheduled speech at IMF 18 Jan - marked Reduction In German Growth Potential Could Translate Into Lower Long-Term Interest Rates - indicators Of Labour Market Slack Would Suggest Higher Wage Settlements More dovish-tinged rhetoric out of EZ talking heads but in Weidmann's case being justifiably cautious rather than a U-turn in stance.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
1

Bank of Japan officials reported as saying current stimulus to remain for now

Bank of Japan, unnamed officials reported (via Bloomberg) to say the market is getting ahead of itself - Current stimulus is needed for now More: --- The BOJ meet January 23 (OK, they meet January 22 23 - announcement will be on the 23rd)

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Bank of Japan officials reported as saying current stimulus to remain for now


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
1
Bank of Japan, unnamed officials reported (via Bloomberg) to say the market is getting ahead of itself - Current stimulus is needed for now More: --- The BOJ meet January 23 (OK, they meet January 22 23 - announcement will be on the 23rd)

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
1

Reuters poll of 75 economists - all expect BoE on hold at next meeting

The Bank of England meet on February 8

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Reuters poll of 75 economists - all expect BoE on hold at next meeting


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
1
The Bank of England meet on February 8

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
1

More on BoC's Poloz - Canada’s economy needs to run a little hot

The headlines were much earlier on comments from Bank of Canada Governor Poloz BoC's Poloz says he does not want to slow down business expansion Bloomberg have a recap now, worth checking out:

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More on BoC's Poloz - Canada’s economy needs to run a little hot


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
1
The headlines were much earlier on comments from Bank of Canada Governor Poloz BoC's Poloz says he does not want to slow down business expansion Bloomberg have a recap now, worth checking out:

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
1

More on the monetary policy disagreements at the Federal Reserve

I posted earlier on the comments from two Federal Reserve regional presidents I described them as duelling comments, and indeed they are at odds, just not on everything ...

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More on the monetary policy disagreements at the Federal Reserve


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
1
I posted earlier on the comments from two Federal Reserve regional presidents I described them as duelling comments, and indeed they are at odds, just not on everything ...

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
2

More from Mester: Sees upside risks from US fiscal policy

                        Loretta Mester is president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve bank branch

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More from Mester: Sees upside risks from US fiscal policy


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
2
                        Loretta Mester is president of the Cleveland Federal Reserve bank branch

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

More from Fed's Mester: Gradual 2018 rate hikes are appropriate

Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve bank branch in Cleveland spoke earlier:   Now, more. This time from the audience Q&A:  

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More from Fed's Mester: Gradual 2018 rate hikes are appropriate


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve bank branch in Cleveland spoke earlier:   Now, more. This time from the audience Q&A:  

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan
1

Fed's Kaplan says room for 3 rate hikes this year

Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.   

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Fed's Kaplan says room for 3 rate hikes this year


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
1
Robert Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.   

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Fed's Evans says less than 3 rate hikes this year is probably appropriate

Chicago Federal Reserve head Charles Evans

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Fed's Evans says less than 3 rate hikes this year is probably appropriate


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
Chicago Federal Reserve head Charles Evans

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

Fed's Mester speaking on the Bank's communications

Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve bank branch in Cleveland Headlines via Reuters   --- Note, there will be a Q&A with the audience and then a further a Q&A with media still to come.

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Fed's Mester speaking on the Bank's communications


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve bank branch in Cleveland Headlines via Reuters   --- Note, there will be a Q&A with the audience and then a further a Q&A with media still to come.

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Author: Eamonn Sheridan

BoC's Poloz says he does not want to slow down business expansion

Bank of Canada Governor Poloz says he does not not want to nip business expansion in the bud Which, in English, means he does not want to slow it down More - Says new investment could boost the economy's potential The news today from CAD land:

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BoC's Poloz says he does not want to slow down business expansion


Author: Eamonn Sheridan
Category: Central Banks
0
Bank of Canada Governor Poloz says he does not not want to nip business expansion in the bud Which, in English, means he does not want to slow it down More - Says new investment could boost the economy's potential The news today from CAD land:

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Author: Adam Button
3

Fed's Kaplan makes a hawkish shift

Kaplan cites unemployment - Tax cuts give him a lot more conviction that the Fed needs to hike three times this year - Fed needs to move gradually and deliberately this year That's a notable shift. He's been more on the dovish end of the spectrum lately.

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Fed's Kaplan makes a hawkish shift


Author: Adam Button
Category: Central Banks
3
Kaplan cites unemployment - Tax cuts give him a lot more conviction that the Fed needs to hike three times this year - Fed needs to move gradually and deliberately this year That's a notable shift. He's been more on the dovish end of the spectrum lately.

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