ForexLive » Jamie Coleman

All we have to do is tick a box…

Jamie Coleman — Fri, 03 Sep 2010 00:30:52 +0000

…and comments go away.No more questions, no more observations, no more feedback.

Keep your comments constructive or take them elsewhere.

Life is too short to referee a kindergarten….

ForexLive US wrap-up: Is it Friday yet?

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 20:04:29 +0000

ECB keeps rates unchanged; extends extraordinary liquidity operations into early January; 3-month refis to be done at variable, not fixed rates
ECB staff raises GDP and inflation forecasts, Trichet sees no double dip
US jobless claims fall 1,000 to 472,000
US nonfarm productivity falls 1.8% in Q2
US pending home sales rise 5.2% in August
Chain store sales rise 3.2% on August: ICSC
Reuters poll: 55% of economists polled see BOC rate hike next week
US factory orders rise 0.1% in July, June revised higher to -0.6%
S&P 500 average 0.9% to 1090
US 10-year note yields rise 5 bp to 3.63%

A mostly range-bound session with EUR/USD stalling ahead of 1.2850. Stops reside just above 1.2860, traders report. Dips were limited to 1.2805 with European corporate buying seen on dips.

JPY pairs were quiet save for AUD/JPY which was a strong performer. AUD/USD closes at trend highs 0f 1.9120 ahead of payrolls.

Sorry for abbreviated wrap-up but we have a hurricane on the way and I need to do some prep work…

EUR/JPY trying to edge up as stocks extend gains late

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 19:50:15 +0000

Many have trimmed positions in anticipation of tomorrow’s employment report but there are still a few intrepid jobbers around and they are marking up EUR/JPY a bit as US equities rally into the close. We’re up about 0.8% with a bit less than 15 minutes of trading to go.

Resistance on the hourly chart comes in around 108.20 near-term.

Those compasionate Aussies

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 19:37:08 +0000

Tenderly caring for a dying whale…

I wonder if Sean lite the fuse?

And now a word from our sponsor…

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 19:27:23 +0000

Thanks to all of you who have opened and account with FXDD in support of our work here at ForexLive. If you have not yet done so, please consider opening one by clicking here.

This one goes out to the East Coast

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 19:21:35 +0000

It’s gonna be a busy 24 hours preparing for the first big hurricane in nearly 20 years.

Here’s a tune to get you in the mood…

Come one come all

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 19:19:26 +0000

Enter your guess in our non-farm payrolls contest. If you win, you will receive a very rare commodity, a ForexLive tee-shirt.

ECB’s Nowotny: No danger of double-dip

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 18:48:21 +0000

Austria’s central bank head Ewald Nowotny is parroting Trichet from this morning’s meeting saying he sees no risk of a double-dip recession in Europe.

Never say never, Ewald!

Citi analysts like EUR/CHF

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 18:17:55 +0000

Citibank analysts (not the tech guys) say like EUR/CHF, noting the slide is overextended and that hedge funds have too large a short position. Yield spreads between Germany and the likes of Greece and Spain have narrowed a bit of late, lessening the safe-haven play. The like a small position, about 5% of a portfolio, they say…

EUR/USD sinking in range; Buyers were here earlier…

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 17:01:54 +0000

Not a lot of buzz in the market this afternoon so it is tough to get much of a read on things at the moment.

EUR?USD has eased back into the 1.2805/10 area, a level where a European corporate was a significant buyer earlier in the session. Expect a few small stops just below 1.2800 if it turns out there are not on the bid this time around. Better support remains in the 1.2775/80 region. Stops are seen around 1.2770 if that level gives way.

Canada rate hike a coin flip, almost

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 16:44:28 +0000

A Reuters poll of Canadian economists shows that 55% expect a 25 bp hike from the BOC next week to 1%. For what its worth, 10 of 12 primary dealers (firms that deal at Canadian bond auctions) see a hike next week.

Looks like we could get some volatility on Wednesday, if nothing else.

Looks like Twitter the cause of the Twitter problem

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 16:33:14 +0000

Looks like we are not alone in our problems with Twitter today…

No spill in Gulf: CNBC

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 16:07:02 +0000

CNBC reports that early reports indicate no spill in the Gulf of Mexico after an explosion on a rig….

Reuters: Euro zone and Japan have not discussed intervention

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 15:42:29 +0000

Reuters quotes unnamed sources as saying officials in the euro zone and Japan have not discussed Euro zone participation in intervention to weaken the JPY.

The source offered these wise words “Do not pee into the wind, only with it.”

Profound.

Few expect Japan to garner much support from the G7 regarding intervention but they don’t expect any protest from other members, either.

I would not be at all surprised if intervention were to come that the Fed, ECB and BOE will intervene in the markets on the BOJ’s behalf, but almost certainly not for their own accounts.

Another rig explodes in Gulf

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 15:39:22 +0000

Here we go again. Another oil rig has apparently exploded in the Gulf of Mexico.

Could be another very quiet afternoon

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 15:32:53 +0000

Yesterday was extremely slow in the US afternoon and I fear a repeat today.

The stakes are fairly high tomorrow as an employment report that exceeds expectations will further buttress hopes that the US will be able to avoid a double-dip recession. If the data is better than expectations, look for safe-havens like USD, JPY and CHF to bear the brunt of the price action. Commodities currencies are the likely winners with majors like EUR and GBP next in line.

IF the data is appreciable worse than expected, turn the above forecast upside-down…

Reflation plays like AUD and CAD would suffer and the USD, JPY and CHF would be the likely winners.

GBP/USD pops on short-covering as stops survive

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 14:56:42 +0000

Stops below the 1.5350 level survive their brush with a near-death experience and traders have been forced to scramble to cover. Low and behold, we’re up to 1.5400. She’s a cruel mistress, cable…

EUR/USD looks like it is building a right shoulder to me

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 14:53:27 +0000

Is EUR/USD building a head and shoulders bottom on the daily charts? Looks like it to me. A few days of consolidation below 1.2850 would set the stage. Unfortunately, with payrolls ahead tomorrow, odds of narrow consolidation seem low.

Food for though…

Citi sells GBP/AUD

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 14:41:44 +0000

They sold at 1.6880 looking for a move below 1.63…Stoploss 1.7050.

Think tank: December SNB hike still a possibility…

Jamie Coleman — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 14:39:45 +0000

A high-profile NY think tank which prefers to remain nameless says there is a possibility that the SNB could hike rates in December, though the odds are diminished (probably by the strong currency).

They firm sees the SNB hiking before the ECB, regardless.

Intervention cannot be ruled out, but it would not be as large as earlier efforts, they say…

My take is that the currency tightens monetary conditions enough that the SNB will refrain from hiking for soe time to come.