ForexLive » Sam Diakou

South Korean FX authorities spotted buying USD

Sam Diakou — Wed, 06 Jan 2010 00:25:05 +0000

South Korean FX authorities have been spotted buying USDKRW. USDKRW has moved up from a low of 1138 to 1143.

USDJPY still looking soft

Sam Diakou — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 23:52:58 +0000

Early Japanese Institutions have been seen selling USDJPY this morning with key support seen at 91.00-10 area. Below stops will be triggered and a fall back to 90.60, the 100 day MA, is highly likely. EURJPY will takes its cues from USDJPY rather than EURUSD. Support seen here at 131.30-35(38.2% fibo retracement of the recent move up from 127.35). Under that and we should see the 50% fibo retracement level at 130.60 achieved.

US light vehicle sales up 6.8% in December

Sam Diakou — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 23:02:10 +0000

Light vehicle sales were up 6.8% at 1,013, 968 in December.

North American December vehicle SAAR 8.54 mln, imported vehicle SAAr 2.54 mln

AUD awaits building approvals number

Sam Diakou — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 22:23:08 +0000

Morning all,

The AUD was unable to break higher overnight and once again the level on top to watch is the 9165-70 area. Range traders looking to buy 9090-9100, but critical support not until 9040. The building approvals number is keenly awaited, for further clues to interest rate hikes. Forecast for the November reading is +3% MoM and a number much greater than that, will see speculation about a February rate hike grow.

Personally, I feel market is sitting touch long, waiting for the number. Risk is to the downside, especially if a worse than expected number is seen. Still short, with a stop above 92c.

A move down through 83.00 in AUDJPY will also see longs liquidate and will confirm a temporary top seen at 85.30 in late October.

Asian Forex Wrap – USDJPY retreats

Sam Diakou — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 05:03:35 +0000

Krugman sees 30-40% chance of recession in H2 2010.
Australia new home sales up 0.3% in November.
CFTC: Dollar spec positions incresed to $4.76 bln.
China official says Yuan to face new round of appreciation.
Nikkei rises to 15 month highs, up 0.8%, ASX200 up 1%, Kospi flat.
Gold higher at 1123.50.
USDKRW hits multi month lows.

Yen cross selling once again prevailed throughout the Asian session. There was USDJPY and Yen cross selling into the fix which continued throughout the day, pinning back the majors. The dollar was also under pressure from fund managers looking to build their new year portfolios by buying stocks, commodities and high yielders. USDJPY fell from the 92.50 area all the way back to sub 93.00, as traders continued to trim long USDJPY positions. Buyers at 91.90 held USDJPY temporarily until stops beneath were tripped sending back to the 91.50 area. Like yesterday,Yen cross selling pressure saw EURJPY drift off under 133.00 and back towards the 132.50-60 area, before the next bout of selling sent it straight down to 132.20, triggering stops in the process.

EURUSD drifted of on the back of EURJPY selling but found buyers ahead of 1.4400 to see an afternoon bounce back up to 1.4440. Still 1.4460 is the level on top, with good sellers reported.

AUDUSD saw a consolidation type day, which usually happens after such an upmove. Sellers via AUDJPY weighed on the AUD, but local demand ahead of the 91c area has held, with traders weary of the Asian session moves.

Ranges:

EURUSD 1.4402 – 1.4443

GBPUSD 1.6064 – 1.6137

USDJPY 91.62 – 92.55

EURJPY 132.22 – 132.46

AUDUSD 9113 – 9163

USDJPY takes out 91.90, stops triggered

Sam Diakou — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 04:41:43 +0000

USDJPY has continued to fall here this afternoon, back to test the bids at 91.90. Unfortunately the bids are no match for the amounts being sold, with some stops triggered beneath. Next level 91.50.

EUR, AUD, and GBP are seeing some upside on the back of a lower dollar but are being held back by Yen cross selling.

China official says Yuan to face new round of appreciation pressure

Sam Diakou — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 04:01:11 +0000

ReutersNews: A Chinese NDRC official has just come out saying that the Yuan is to face a new round of appreciation pressures, which may lead to hot money inflows. Such inflows would create difficulties for liquidity mangement. He goes on to say that China will encourage overseas investment to secure stable energy and resource supply.

Australia new home sales up 0.3% in November

Sam Diakou — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 03:31:43 +0000

Sales of new homes in Australia rose slightly, up 0.3% in November. That follows a 6% drop in October.

USDJPY testing yesterday’s low

Sam Diakou — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 03:28:43 +0000

Seeing Yen crosses sold off across the board as USDJPY peels back to the 92.00 area. Buyers parked just beneath at 91.90, under that and its its back to 91.50. Yen cross selling has been prominent all day keeping AUD and EUR in very tight trading ranges.

Specs increase long USD positions

Sam Diakou — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 02:44:13 +0000

Speculators have increased long USD positions for a second straight week ending Dec 29 according to CFTC data. Dollar net long positions were valued at $4.76 bln, a dramatic increase from the net long of $700 mln the week prior, making it the biggest net long USD position since April. Obviously some position have been trimmed since then, even with Friday’s unemployment number approaching.

USDKRW slides thru support

Sam Diakou — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:36:35 +0000

The USDKRW has been sold off thru critical support at 1148 and trading to a 15 month low of 1142.80, reinforcing views of an interest rate rise. Foreign exchange authorities were seen buying USD to stem the fall around the 1146 area. The USDKRW selling has also spilt over in USDJPY, which has remained under pressure post fix.

Japan December monetary base up 5.2% YoY

Sam Diakou — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:27:25 +0000

Japan’s monetary base rose 5.2% in December from a year earlier. Current account deposits at the central bank grew 53.6% after increasing 43.4% in November.

Yen crosses lower into fix

Sam Diakou — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 01:02:24 +0000

USDJPY and Yen crosses have drifted off into the fix today, with the sell side slightly more prominent. EURJPY low to 133.20 from 133.4o and USDJPY back to 92.30 from 92.50. But with traders looking to take on some risk, I would think dips will be sought after in Yen crosses.

Nikkei rises to 15 month high

Sam Diakou — Tue, 05 Jan 2010 00:51:34 +0000

The Nikkei is up 0.7% today, following Wall St higher on the back of the ISM manufacturing index rising. JAL shares are up 3.5% after employees agreed to approve pension cuts. Elsewhere in the region, the ASX200 is up 1%, with both banks and resource stocks higher. The Kospi is up 0.6%

EUR in still in range

Sam Diakou — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 23:44:42 +0000

Despite the bullish outside day chart formation, EUR was still unable to take out the important resistance level at 1.4460. Im hearing there is some selling to be done at that level today, thus doubt we shoot stight thru there in Asia. First downside support level is here at 1.4400, with range traders looking to get on board at that level, but Id be waiting for 1.4370-80 area. Bigger picture its still trapped in a 1.4220 – 1.4460 range.

Once again the first move of the week yesterday in Asia proved to be wrong!

Krugman sees 30-40% chance of recession in H2 2010

Sam Diakou — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 23:20:18 +0000

Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Krugman said that he see a 30-40% chance that the US will slip into recession in the second half of 2010. He said growth will slow as the FED ends security purchases and the stimulus program comes to an end.

AUD shoots for the stars

Sam Diakou — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 22:26:08 +0000

Morning all,

Well what a night that was, with the AUD one of the best performers, taking out 9020 and 9120 levels without hesitation. From experience, after such a move, AUD usually consolidates. Look for 9150-70 on top to provide some resistance, with 9100-20 support. Range play it today.

Personally I was a buyer yesterday between 8900-30 but didnt get set. I resorted to buying a break of 9030, taking profit at 9090 and shorting it at 9105. So Im sitting short slightly out of the money and will stay that way until 9200 on top gets taken out.

For those who are long, I would stay that way until 9100 on the downside gives way.

Asian Forex Wrap – Yen crosses sold off

Sam Diakou — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 05:16:42 +0000

Krueger says US economy still weak.
Gordon Brown says will raise taxes on the rich and halve the deficit in four years.
Australian PMI falls to 48.5 in December.
Tokyo stock exchange lauches new trading platform, “Arrowhead”.
Singapore advance Q4 GDP +3.5% YoY, below expectations.
Feldstein says US may falter in 2010 because of lack of stimulus funding.
China HSBC December PMI at 56.1.
Asian bourses mostly flat except for Nikkei, up 1.1%.
Gold last at 1102.00

Yen cross selling was the order of the day today. Early Sydney was quiet until Japanese names started to appear, selling off USDJPY and EURJPY initially. This quickly flowed into other crosses with GBPJPY and AUDJPY under pressure by mid-morning. USDJPY was sold down from the 93.10 area after once again failing to move higher in Asia. Sellers towards 93.20 weighed on the market and it wasnt long before a push back to 92.70 was seen. EURJPY followed, slipping back thru the 100 and 200 day MA stopping to take a breather at 132.65-70. USD demand heading into the Tokyo fix saw USDJPY move from 92.70, back up above 93.00. But that demand subsided a couple of hours later with renewed Yen cross selling sending USDJPY and EURJPY back to sit on their supports at 92.70 and 132.40 respectively. Panic selling of USDTWD down thru 32.00 after the Central bank allowed the pair to move lower, also added to the afternoon USDJPY selling.

EURUSD never looked comfortable above 1.4300 today. The EURJPY selling was too much for EUR, sending it straight down thru 1.4300. The second wave lower was on the back of USD demand heading into the fix which EUR back to find some buyers ahead of 1.4250. Even then, the move back up has been limited to just below 1.4300. Seems traders will now wait for European manufacturing PMI data later on before making their next move.

Both AUD and GBP saw moves lower on the back off their Yen cross. GBPJPY retreated just over 100 pips to sit just above 149.00 and AUDJPY down towards 83.00 from 83.70. AUD Dec PMI fell short of expectation and back below the 50 which initially had no impact, but with the amount of AUDJPY selling out of Tokyo, US investment banks found the opportunity to jump on the selling wagon hitting it back below the morning support of 8970. It continued lowe,r stopping at the previous 8930 area to see a bounce back up to 8970.

Ranges:

EURUSD 1.4255 – 1.4332

GBPUSD 1.6069 – 1.6150

USDJPY 92.67 – 93.08

EURJPY 132.36 – 133.35

AUDUSD 8938 – 8997

EURJPY sits just above support

Sam Diakou — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 03:52:01 +0000

EURJPY is appoaching the recent support level of 132.40 and needs to hold if we are to resume upwards again. Under 132.40 opens the door for a move lower to 131.20, 38.2% fibo retracement level of the whole move up from 127.35, ending the recent 10 day up run.

China HSBC December PMI 56.1

Sam Diakou — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 02:53:08 +0000

The HSBC purchasing manager index rose to 56.1 in December, up from 55.7 in November and the highest since the survey began in April 2004. Chinese manufacturers raised their prices at the fastest rate in 17 months. Companies said inflationary pressures came from rising raw material prices, in particular steel. The number is consistent with the offficial PMI released three days ago showing a rise to 56.6 in December.