ForexLive » Sean Lee

EUR/GBP increasing in volatility

Sean Lee — Thu, 18 Mar 2010 00:14:39 +0000

This pair has been good to trade even in the Asian session and the volatility looks set to continue. With EUR sentiment still negative and nervous and with the GBP looking oversold but also nervous, the volatility should continue

EUR/CHF: another downtrend not to be disregarded

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 23:56:21 +0000

I wrote about this pair yesterday and with the SNB nowhere to be seen, the dangers of intervention are becoming apparent. Not much support until the spike low from last year at 1.4300, resistance at 1.4620.

EUR: rangebound against the USD but still bearish on the crosses

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 23:02:25 +0000

I continue to maintain that EUR/USD is in a consolidation phase between 1.3550/1.3850 which I expect to eventually break higher (but that could be in 3 or 5 weeks time). EUR/JPY, as we’ve discussed in the comment section, is trying to form a top at 125.25 and that level is looking technically quite strong. EUR/GBP has turned sharply south over the last few sessions as longs get nervous and start bailing. Once that pair starts moving in one direction with a bit of momentum, who knows where it will stop.

USD/JPY: my feeling is that the market is quite bullish

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 22:32:04 +0000

I don’t have the patience to trade USD/JPY but after talking with a lot of fellow traders the unanimous view (apart from mine) is that USD/JPY goes higher. Once the repatriation flows are over and done with, USD/JPY will take out resistance at 92.25 and establish a base for a move towards 100 over the next 9 months. Perhaps they are right but I cannot now start entering a trade with a possible exit time around Christmas. Until the JPY crosses can overcome their medium term downtrends then I cannot see how USD/JPY is going to rally.

Corporate sell orders at 91.10/20 and stops below 89.75 is what I’m hearing from the order book grapevine. Dip

Citi Techs add to tactical cable position

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 21:51:15 +0000

I went with them last week when they recommended a long trade at 1.4925 and that was a very nice little earner, thank you Citi bank. They are going for the big payday and have added to their position overnight at present levels, with a s/l raised to 1.5180 and a target at 1.5700. I think they may be biting a bit too much off with this trade but good luck to them.

Asian FX market open: AUD uptrend recommences

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 21:12:36 +0000

After a period of consolidation between .9100/.9200, the AUD/USD looks like it has recommenced it’s uptrend and I am looking for a move now above and beyond .9400. The GBP has also continued to undo its severely oversold status but I think it will struggle to make more sharp gains as we near the 1.55 breakdown level. EUR/USD is rangebound 1.3550/1.3850 (with a bullish bias in my opinion) and USD/JPY is, well, USD/JPY (enough said).

Good luck today.

Asian FX market wrap: BoJ expands credit program

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 05:19:21 +0000

Not unexpectedy, the BoJ keeps rates at 0.1% and boosts it’s credit program to JPY20 trillion
USD/JPY dipped after the anouncement in a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact
RBA assistant governor says rates to rise further
Way forward for Greece remains unclear as Germany would possibly be unable to ratify any bail-out package of any sort
Regional stockmarkets gain over 1% on average

It was another brutally boring morning session in Asia with the EUR/USD trading for almost 6 hours in a 10 pip range. The BoJ announcement brought a few fresh flows into the market and this encouraged some small movements.

USD/JPY fell from 90.40 to 90.03 immediately after the announcement in what was a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact. But with 2-year JGB yields now at 4 year lows, USD/JPY and the JPY crosses found some willing dip buyers and USD/JPY has jumped to a new session high at 90.62. Unusually, this pair has been the most volatile during the local session.

AUD/USD jumped above .9200 in early trade as stop-loss buying in NZD/USD led the way but when AUD/NZD sellimng also materialised, the AUD/USD drifted back to its NY closing level. Range: .9174/.9209.

Cable and EUR were both relatively quiet although the GBP has given back some of its overnight gains on the cross. Sovereign sellers are expected in the EUR/USD at 1.3825/50 and this dissuaded local traders from being overly bullish. Ranges: EUR/USD 1.3763/86; Cable 1.5220/60.

Markets: Nikkei +0.75%, HK +1.3%, Kospi +1.1%. Gold +5 to $1128/oz.

USD/JPY: Stop-losses building below 89.75

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 04:13:49 +0000

I’m hearing from the interbank market that there are a few stops building below 89.75 which may attract dealers attention in early European trade.

BoJ: buy the rumour sell the fact

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 04:02:40 +0000

The market got what it was expecting (in fact a little more) and USD/JPY has fallen nevertheless. Looks like a case of buy the rumour sell the fact.

It’s a sad day when we’re relying on the BoJ for some volatility

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 03:28:15 +0000

I don’t think any of the major pairs have dealt over the last few hours. Perhaps all traders are down the Irish Pub, which is where I should be.

The market very seldom moves after BoJ meetings but perhaps today will be different. It’s our last hope for some volatility in an otherwise pathetic session

RBA’s Debelle: interest rates to rise further

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 02:38:20 +0000

Assistant governor of the RBA says official interest rates will rise further but the AUD remains in the doldrums, unmoved at .9181.

Any EU bail-out of Greece must be ratified by German law

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 02:34:31 +0000

This is something we’ve been saying for weeks now and AEP over at the UK Telegraph now reports the same. Any bail-out package could spell constitutional challenges in Karlsruhe against the EUR itself.

BoJ may expand lending program

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 01:54:14 +0000

This Bloomberg report has surveyed 18 international economists and the majority opinion is that the BoJ will expand its credit program by at least 5 trillion JPY. The policy decision, which is expected to leave rates on hold at 0.1%, will be announced in the early afternoon, Tokyo time and the Governor’s statement is scheduled for 3:30 pm Tokyo time.

Asia doing it’s usual thing; consolidating overnight moves

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 01:06:38 +0000

Cable is 30 pips lower than it’s NY close after a big move higher overnight. AUD/USD tried to gain a foothold above .9200 but stop-loss selling in the AUD/NZD is weighing on the Aussie and it is back below its NY closing level also. EUR/USD has had a 12 pip range so far today. In 4 hours trade that is quite pathetic.

Nikkei +0.6%, Kospi +1%

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:35:12 +0000

Both Bourses have been open for about 30 minutes. USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are a little bit higher but all-in-all its been another very quiet morning session.

50:50 on an RBA rate rise next month

Sean Lee — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:30:56 +0000

That is according to the well know RBA-watcher Terry McCrann who has been very accurate in his predictions over the last few months.

EUR/CHF: downtrend reestablished as SNB goes missing

Sean Lee — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 23:57:32 +0000

I refuse to trade pairs where there is intervention happening as it distorts the market and it’s usual workings. The danger (as the Bank of England learned all those years ago) in trying to put a floor on a currency is that when the floor disappears, the fall can be quite spectacular. There’s not much in the way of technical support until the 1.43 spike low. Resistance is at the previous floor of 1.4620.

USD/JPY: market wants to buy but repatriations still capping

Sean Lee — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 23:25:12 +0000

This is another pair which has me flummoxed at the moment. My tendency is to be short, despite the lowly level, but I think I’m in a minority as most other traders I speak with and whose opinion I value, seem quite bullish USD/JPY. In the short term, sales of the USD by Japanese corporations as they send profits home before the end of the financial year, continue to cap any rises and the offers are fairly heavy between 91.10/20 I’m told. Professional traders seem happy to buy dips as they anticipate an increased level of government intervention in coming months.

NZD makes big about-turn; market caught short

Sean Lee — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 22:36:26 +0000

AUD/NZD is back below 1.29 and NZD/USD is at .7125 after a few sessions of fairly furious NZD short covering. We saw from the speculative positioning data earlier in the week that the market was already quite short the Kiwi and obviously not all that comfortable with the position, judging by the short-covering rush. Technical resistance in the NZD/USD is quite firm between .7150/75 and support in the AUD/NZD is at 1.2850 (38.2% 1.2410/1.3120)

AUD/USD back above .9200

Sean Lee — Tue, 16 Mar 2010 21:49:36 +0000

It looks as if the AUD may well have one of its bullish spurts today with the pair back above .9200 and little in the way of resistance until .9325, a level at which the RBA has intervened on two occasions. Technical support is now firming at .9050 and with such an expensive carry in play, shorts are being consistently squeezed out of the market. Buy-big-dips is still the mantra here.