Forex News | Currency News by Forexlive

“Three major meetings will take place in Europe over the next nine days: a meeting of the G-20, a NATO summit and a meeting of the European Union with U.S. President Barack Obama. The week will define the relationship between the United States and Europe and reveal some intra-European relationships. If not a defining moment, the week will certainly be a critical moment in dealing with economic, political and military questions. To be more precise, the meeting will be about U.S.-German relations. Not only is Germany the engine of continental Europe, its policies diverge the most sharply from those of the United States. In some ways, U.S.-German relations have been the core of the U.S.-European relationship, so this marathon of summits will focus on the United States and Germany.”

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090330_united_states_germany_and_beyond

Germany’s March adjusted jobless rose +69k, worse than the median forecast of +52k, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 8.1%, a little higher than the median forecast of 8.0%. Just another piece of weak data in a sea of weak data.  The jobless number had been leaked a little ahead of the official release.

Despite the poor data, the euro marches on, EUR/USD presently at 1.3285.

EUR/USD has steadied, presently around 1.3245.  There is expected to be month-end demand for the euro at the fixes (11.00/16.00 BST), along with demand for cable, AUD and CAD.  The demand is related to equity market end of the month accounting. There is also expected to be JPY sales.

Cable and EUR/USD are giving back some of their earlier gains, with sources reporting the Russian central bank in selling both pairings. Cable is back at 1.4280, while EUR/USD is back at 1.3235.

The main change overnight in Asia has been weakness in the JPY, with USD/JPY up at 98.10 from a North America close Monday around 97.25, while EUR/JPY is at 130.15 from around 128.35.  The support the JPY had been garnering from year-end repatriation flows has now seemingly dried up. Rather the market is concentrating on the release of tomorrows Tankan report. Speculation is that the BOJ report will show business confidence slumping to a 30-year low.

Elsewhere the USD is a little lower, EUR/USD up at 1.3250 from a North American close Monday around 1.3200, while cable is up at 1.4310 from around 1.4265. The USD’s reserve currency status is again being called into question. A source at the BOJ  has raised the spectre of the IMF raising funds through issuing SDR bonds which China would buy to the tune of about $250 bln equivalent.

Talk of a new Japanese stimulus package has helped lift sentiment in Asia, which has also weighed on USD and JPY a little.

We’ve already had the release of German February ILO unemployment, which rose to 7.4% from 7.3% in January.

Economic data releases for the rest of the day are as follows:

07:55 GMT: German unemployment change (Mar) expected 52k

07:55 GMT: German unemployment rate s.a (Mar) expected 8.0%

08:00 GMT: Italian retail sales s.a (Jan) expected -0.2% m/m, -2.0% y/y

08:30 GMT: UK  index of services 3m/3m (Jan) expected -1.0%

09:00 GMT: Italian CPI (Mar) provisional expected 0.1% m/m, 1.0%  y/y

09:00 GMT: Euro zone CPI estimate (Mar) expected 0.7% y/y

• Britain is likely to be one of the big losers from any G20 IMF deal
• Thursday”s G20 meeting is looking increasingly pivotal
• China and Argentina agree currency swap
• Japanese spending drops, jobless rate rises
• China’s growth outlook cut

In a complete 180 degree u-turn on yesterdays trade in Asia, EUR and AUD led the way higher against both the USD and the JPY. Increasing speculation that the IMF might greatly increase it’s funding through an agreement with China (and in the process reduce the importance of the USD as the worlds reserve currency) has been the driver behind the USD selling and as the EUR/USD and AUD/USD rose, so too did the short covering in the JPY crosses. It was not really a case of risk returning to the market, more a case of one thing leading to another.  There will be much more on this G20/IMF story in the coming days for sure.

Sovereign names have been seen on the bid in EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GBP/USD although they are also likely to appear on the offer should these pairings rally appreciably. There is talk also of major USD-selling flows at the end-of-month London fix but once again without verification.

Gold is steady in Asia at $923 and Brent crude recovered some of yesterdays losses, currently trading at $49/bbl. Asian regional stock markets were mixed with the Nikkei flat, Hang Seng +0.4%, Shanghai -0.4% and the Kospi +1.3%.

Ranges: EUR/USD 1.3175/1.3273, Cable 1.4241/1.4340, AUD/USD .6785/.6895, USD/JPY 97.22/98.23 and EUR/JPY 128.24/130.63.

It’s approaching that time again and there is a stupendously magnificent prize on offer for the winner of this month’s NFP guessing competition.

The AUD/CAD has today traded back up to a high of 0.8664 which is the highest level we have seen since 6 Jan 09. Expect to see some selling interest at this level given we have failed on a number of previous attempts in the past week or so to extend the move to the next level of resistance seen coming in 0.8780.

With household income and spending falling in Japan in February while the employment rate rose to its highest level in three years things are not looking too promising.

With US equity market futures currently up the currency markets are taking this as a sign that maybe yesterday’s move was a little of an over reaction to what was little more than old news. Expect the JPY crosses to benefit from this and if the equity markets remain in positive territory we should see the recent highs retested in the coming day or two.

As far as the majors go, the AUD/USD needs to work its way through resistance in the 0.6930/50 region, the EUR/USD needs to break back above 1.3320 and USD/JPY looks like it is on its way to retest 99.00.

• <
• 1
• ...
• 3
• 4
• 5
• 6
• 7
• ...
• 161
• >