Asian forex open: Don’t fight the JPY trend

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I have been waiting for this EUR/JPY move to start up again and I believe it started yesterday. Don’t be looking for fundamentals here, it’s simply that the market is bearish, short and the big flows are buying rather than selling. Once the major players start chasing it we will see levels above 140 and perhaps even close to 150. If you’re bearish, my view is that you should take a 3 week break. I also think we will see AUD/JPY up towards 80/85 and that’s where I start re-building long term shorts!

On the day, USD/JPY has some decent technical resistance at 97.20 where the market stalled overnight. Support is at 96.50 and this range should contain early trading. EUR/USD is in a bullish phase with short/term parameters at 1.38/1.4050 and more medium term parameters at 1.3650/1.42. EUR/GBP didn’t manage a second daily close below the 200-day MA and the market smells short to me. There is strong AUD/USD selling expected on the approach to .7900/25 and support is firm with Sovereign buying on dips towards .7700.

Good luck today.


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Sean Lee

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