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Don’t forget the Toshin maturities

By   || July 13, 2009 at 22:24 GMT
|| 7 comments || Add comment

Toshins are investment vehicles which allow Japanese retail clients to invest in overseas securities. Investment houses package large amounts of investors together, often totalling billions of dollars worth. Early last week there were some new Toshin launches which were incredibly (over 90%) undersubscribed. This will have set off some alarm bells in the industry. In the next two weeks we are set to see some big Toshin maturities. Normally, a significant percentage of maturities is re-invested in another vehicle, thereby creating no FX transaction. Some of the big Japanese banks have been issuing reports in recent weeks saying that this months Toshin maturities will not be rolled over and thus will lead to some heavy JPY buying, particularly against the AUD and the NZD.

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7 Responses to “Don’t forget the Toshin maturities”

  1. Burt on July 13th, 2009 22:32 GMT

    Hi Sean JPY Buying is cross selling right ?, reason I ask is that I went short EUR/JPY hoping for a nice drop from here .
    Have A Graet Day

  2. Sean Lee on July 13th, 2009 22:40 GMT

    That’s right Burt. Dealers tell me that they have a mix of sellers/stops up until 131.50 area when the sellers then are much bigger. You may need a bit of patience with this one today or else gradually enter the trade. Good luck with it!

  3. Burt on July 13th, 2009 23:34 GMT

    there must be something at 130.35 it keeps bouncing off , I got out on the large dip , looking to get back in at 130.5 or so

  4. Sean Lee on July 13th, 2009 23:46 GMT

    There are some very solid offers in USD/JPY between 93.50/75 I’m told which should slow down any bullish progress.

  5. Blackday on July 14th, 2009 08:21 GMT

    Yet another bottom added to USDJPY yesterday by the look of it too.

  6. lilac on July 14th, 2009 22:05 GMT

    Just noticed that USD/JPY topped at 93.78 for now.
    You still seeing the solid offers, Sean?
    Just wondering what effect, if any, there’ll be on the GBP and EUR crosses.
    You started loading up with cable yet? ;)
    Ta and g’night from me.

  7. Sean Lee on July 14th, 2009 22:11 GMT

    Hi Lilac. Just spoke with a dealer who tells me there are solid offers in USD/JPY either side of 94 but the bigger offers are in EUR/JPY 13150/132 from macro accounts- these guys can be sizeable. As today is the 15th, we should see some added activity at Tokyo fix but Toshin maturities usually don’t occur until after 20th. Yeah, I’m small short cable and have offers staggered up to 1.6445. If it then holds these levels I’ll have a bit of a lash as I think we can see 1.55ish esp if JPY crosses stay heavy and eur/gbp buying stays strong. C u tomorrow.

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