AUTOREFRESH 
EUR/USD outlook remains consolidative/bullish
Since the last bullish leg stalled at 1.4340 6 weeks ago, this pair has been in a consolidation phase. The big option play which China has been running has added to, or led to, this price action. Now that these options are starting to roll off, EUR/USD is likely to go for a run in one direction or another. China remains a net buyer of EUR/USD at the moment as they struggle to manage their massive $USD surplus and as they are by far the biggest player in the market, this would indicate that the next break is onto a higher plane, 1.40/1.47 for instance. Some factors weigh against this view, namely the structural problems which are still evident inside the EU, the potentially massive financing problems in Eastern Europe and finally, that EUR/USD belongs around 1.20, not 1.40.
Whatever your view, let’s hope we are about to see a break in one direction or another.
That’s the pair i’m lookin’ to murder as soon as it breaks out. I mentioned an initial breakout of 900 pip’s due to measurement, but that’s a bit light really. I knocked a 1/3 off of it so I didn’t sound crazy. 2600 or so +/- pips would be the standard target in either direction of the breakout.
That +/- means up or down by the way. Are you still short Cable, Sean?
Yes Mike. Traded it a bit on Friday so position is looking ok. I’m hoping for a run back towards 1.6400/20 to sell some more with a strategy stop above 1.66. EUR/USD is the one pair which worries me a bit in that it looks quite bid. I think EUR/GBP can see .92 level again but I’m hoping this happens through the cable leg and not through a big EUR/USD rally.
Sean, you were quite bullish on euro just a few weeks ago and were predicting 1.47 or even higher, 1.50. But now you seem less enthusiastic. What’s your take / forecast on the eur/usd now? Thanks
What do you think will happen with the EUR/USD this week when Ben Bernanke speaks or even by the end of the month? Stay close to the 1.40 range higher or lower? Any thoughts?