AUTOREFRESH 
EUR: caught in the cross fire
EUR/GBP buying, EUR/CHF buying by SNB, EUR/JPY selling as a risk-aversion play, and persistent USD weakness; all these ingredients have to be thrown into the mix before we can come up with a destination for EUR/USD in the short to medium term.
The weight of the argument would seem to be with the bulls but what worries me is that the EUR/USD is at historically high levels. Certainly the US has its problems but it has done much to try and rectify them whereas Europe it seems is still sitting on a time-bomb when you look at the individual debt of many of the member countries.
All up then it looks like I should be range trading the EUR/USD with a very mild bullish bias, as long as 1.48 continues to hold. The next upside target is the double-top neckline at 1.5290 and this should be the upper end of the range.
(Or based on my analysis above; when EUR/USD gets to 1.48 I should sell USD/JPY, and when EUR/USD gets to 1.53 I should sell cable!)
Personal opinion Sean, I think we are in the mindset of momentum/window dressing influenced trade through yearend as as FT Alphaville Piece today re: JPM strategists suggested. By thelargest winners on ytd basis and sell the greatest losers. Illogical, ignorant and positively ridiculous butI fear that will be the name of the game as the types buying into that thesis see every setback in winners like EURUSD and gains in losers such as USDJPY for example, as an opportunity to
bargain hunt”.
Hi Dennis, I haven’t been able to find any info on the futures you asked about. Sorry but noone I know trades them. As I’ve said many times, the market is a herd of sheep which are quite happy trundling along in one direction until they hit an immovable obstacle, then it takes them a long time to turn around but they eventually do. Baa baa, lol!!
What a fitting analogy. Sean you deserve some sort of award for that.