AUTOREFRESH 
More risk aversion ahead of the weekend
Looks like we are getting a last wave of pre-weekend risk aversions as stocks , bond yields and commodities slide and the dollar rallies versus EUR, AUD, GBP (for a change) and CHF (thank’s SNB!). The S&P is down nearly 1%, Oil is below $73, and the buck is at its highs pretty much across the board.
With the Swiss franc no longer a viable safe-haven over the weekend, the JPY seems to be playing that role late in the day. EUR/JPY continues to give up its earlier gains, as does USD/JPY.USD/JPY is at 90.25.
124.80 is important support for EUR/JPY in the near-term while 124.38, the low dating back to the end of April last year will come into play if the aforementioned level gives way. It trades now at 125.20 after a post-data rally to 126.70 this morning.
The macro unwinding of the reflation trade remains relentless today regardless of the relatively strong US data.
the 200 day moving average on the weekly comes in around current levels.
any thoughts???im of the gut feeling there is a huge s/t reversal slamming the usd starting sun-mon session as china quashes a revaluation, and starts dumping usd’s for other ccys that are at new lows on the cheap.
ZZ –we get it… 1.41/1.42 in the blink of an eye…noted..understood…gotcha..check..hope it works out for ya…
Jamie, its goin there you know it
actually lookin at the longer charts if u look at leg A – 1.5138 to B – 1.4217 , then we had the move up to begin point C at 1.4577. The measured move where AB = CD would give us a target of roughly 1.3656… which strangely enough coincides with the weekly down channel… then we will bounce back to 141/142 with lightenin speed….
Thanks to all on the team for another great week!
Yeah Bear, thats what im looking at. 1.365 is also the 1.618% of the first wave on the decline from the top. Thats actually the bullish count under elliot wave, ie. that the entire decline is just a correction. if it is actually and impulse (as I think it will) there will be more follow through before a proper bounce.
EurUsd Daily
http://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/20100129-ar6h-225kb
GbpUsd Daily
http://my.jetscreenshot.com/demo/20100129-fzg3-255kb
good man emilio nice to be on the same page
To the best Forex commentary in the land…Tnx guys…
Thankyou Sean, Gerry,Jaime,
Great service , great people, great insight. Hope everyone has a great weekend
Have a great weekend everyone
Bear,
You were right for AUD. I got out of gold at B/E but currently carrying some loss in AUD. I need AUD to get at around .8930 to get out at B/E.
What are your thoughts on AUD?
thanks
Puks, I’m right there with you…keep me posted on what you find out please!
Hey Puks,
As far as AUD goes from what I see on my charts fridays extremely bearish close and a break of the 78.6 fibo should by all rights have us targeting the 100% fibo at 0.8730. Also the break and close under the daily 100 ema and daily S2 increases the bearish case.
On the topside minor resistance should be found at 0.8895 then strong resistance in the 0.8925/55 area.
Personally I am still short from 0.9270 as of 2 weeks ago and will continue to hold that whilst the current climate of risk avrsion persists.
The only danger I see to the immediate bearish case for Aussie is gold and silver, should we indeed see the likes of China and India buying strongly down around the 1050/57 area gold and 15.50 area silver, then Aussie would directly benefit as would Canada.
Not sure who tries to pick the bottom for EUR/USD but looking at the daily if 1.3800 gives away we could see a target towards 1.3500 area. But let’s see around 1.3830 area and 1.3800 if it knacks or not. Enjoy the weekend.
yeh agree Adje with the 50% fib coming in at 1.3800 and 61.8 at 1.3485 traders will be looking at those levels with interest. 1.3650 was also good res on a weekly chart in march through may of 2009, it also marks the measured move target of the ABCD pattern from 1.5140. Whereever we bounce, this year looks like it will be a cracker providing we dont get our leverage slashed….