AUTOREFRESH 
GBP/USD technicals: interesting weekly chart
Two of my best performing trades of recent years have been long cable trades so I’m probably not the most objective person to listen to. I am bullish the GBP against all of the other majors and I have no fundamental reason for it apart from ‘it feels very oversold to me’. GBP/JPY has broken important support but failed to close below it. EUR/GBP has I feel put in a major top and has room to move back below .80.
The 200-week MA in the cable is at 1.8150 so we are currently 15% below that level, surely a good sign of an oversold market. The market is currently moving in a bearish consolidation pattern between parallel trend lines with parameters at 1.55/1.68 approximately. As we are towards the bottom of this channel, this suggest ‘oversold’ to me also.
If we are in a new downtrend then this analysis will soon prove to be wrong. If on the other hand we start getting strong daily chart lows on cable and GBP/JPY close to these pivotal 1.55 and 139 levels, then be ready for a very sharp bounce.
I really want to get involved in a yen pair, but being long would make me feel more secure as far as a lengthy and profitable trade is concerned. Being short, would have me very concerned about the BOJ. That being said, i’m sure i’ll end up watching them go down 20 yen. lol
Hey Michael, aud/jpy has bounced off 76.2 a couple of times. I’m on the lookout to see if it tests that level and bounces again. That could be a nice ride up for a couple of days. In terms of an upside play, I think the aussie is going to be slightly stronger against the yen than the euro. Cheers,
I’ve got that and kiwi/yen in my sights. Aussie is probably the better of the 2, with New Zealand’s employment worries. I’ll wait and see what happens early tomorrow morning.
USD/JPY for me, with or without Kampo.
Or Harpo or Groucho
Lilac. Are you long usd/yen?
Flat right now, Mikey.
Just wanted to see how the land lies – although Asia usually gets it wrong on a Monday
Probably meowing up the wrong tree, but I’ll take my cue from that pair.
If you look back on the weeklys on GBP ten or so years 1.55/1.52 been fairly pivotal on a week closing basis.
I’m still short, but not really liking it at all. I’ve got a tight leash, on this one. Gbp/yen being my favorite yen cross, is the one i’m waiting on for a big move up. I’ll wait, as long as it takes. Other than that, I really don’t know what else to do, as far as a yen cross is concerned. I don’t see usd/yen going too much further to the downside, so i’ll scrape up what I can and then bail.
Bear pointed out a bearish flag on the crosses on Friday – whilst eur and gdp haven’t recovered, usd has just about found support so far.
But right now I’m going to curl up
Nightie night.
The tell will be how it dances around the 38.2% fib level (1.5700) of the Jan 09 to Oct 09 low to high. Last week was a fairly strong takeout of the weekly 50 SMA, which to me, points to more downside pressure. Maybe some consolidation and a retrace of last weeks move, and then off to the 50% around 1.5280.
But a weekly close (or a few daily closes) this week above 1.57 should be a good enough sign of rejection of this downside push. That will happen if equities catch a strong bid.
The broken line of the pennant should be backtested at 1.5900, and this is where I would short weakness for a trip into the 50-61.8% area.