AUTOREFRESH 
Short EUR positioning at record levels
By Sean Lee || February 9, 2010 at 03:39 GMT
|| 18 comments || Add comment
I’m always a little wary of reports such as this, but a friend of mine who works for a major European bank just rang after reading my rant on the EUR. He said that the latest report on speculative positioning in the professional market suggests that EUR short positioning is at record levels. Has anybody read or heard of any reports from the retail market which might reject or substantiate this?
On DailyFX Plus (FXCM) 53% of traders are long EURUSD. 53% of FXCM customers, that is.
A very influential web-guy’s been calling E/U 1.35 since around December-ish. This would mean people holding out from 1.42-ish. and even some holding chunky 1000 pip’ers from close to the beginning of the month.
Thanks Peter, that’s excellent.
Found this story:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0330ba78-149f-11df-9ea1-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1
EToro’s showing 67% short E/U . 1.36 looks a yummy buy. I switched to the ‘bold’ side on A/U Sean. Rollover was the clincher.
Net short position Euro are the highest since its was started
Risk Aversion in Forex Market
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1407535800&play=1
well we all know what happens when the mkt gets too long or short , in this case short, it can only go one way and thats in the other direction, case in point gold got to very lofty levels and if u belive the COT data massively overbought until december 2009 that is
Thanks for the excellent intel and links. It does indeed look like the EUR market is betting the house on more big falls.
On oanda, there is 59/41 long to short with 29% more activity but this is based on a an hourly sample. according to their chart it’s gone up from about 55/45 the last 24 hr period.
Thank so you so much for the blog updates.
Take care,
Donnie
The more shorts or longs we have, the more are the chances of a squeeze.
I agree with Sean that market is quite over reacting, and I am trying to build longs position, especially on GBPUSD and GBPJPY, that felt with EUR in simpathy.
I like your thinking Francesco, have yu any specific levels in mind for the GBP?
Morning Sean, Maybe this will help a bit. but it’s always released at the end of the week.
http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/Commitment-of-Traders.aspx
I started buying at 1.58 and doubled at 1.5640.
Keeping half of my margin intact just in case of further fall.
In forex you never know, but my feeling is that there is instead a lot of buying at these levels, and this consolidation is nothing but a chance to go long.
I don’t know about levels, but I would not be surprised to see Cable much closer to 1.70 this spring
For GBPJPY, I would start some small buying around 139 if possible
I’m rather late then taking risk. I always remember what Jamie told about Newton. “What is in motion tends to stay in motion” Excelent reminder from Jamie.
Remember guys that when the accounts start to blow up, it’s time to go the opposite direction.
Simply because who gained will start to take profit and go the other way
Shean I’ve just commented that i saw sells around 1.720 and you come up with this
wich confirms what I’m expecting.
I’m shorting aswell, shorted AudUsd too with tight stops.