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AUD to stay range bound ahead of RBA

By   || February 28, 2010 at 22:48 GMT
|| 8 comments || Add comment

The AUD has had some big moves recently just after RBA meetings and I expect that trend to continue. The short term range should be contained inside a broad .8800/.9050 range until the meeting tomorrow and the market will likely break heavily one way or other after the event. The general expectation is that the RBA will return to their hiking cycle but international factors may yet persuade them to pause.

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Category: All, Asia
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8 Responses to “AUD to stay range bound ahead of RBA”

  1. Bear on February 28th, 2010 23:09 GMT

    Hey sean hope all is well.. been away for a week n looks like i havnt missed much . All my shorts from last monday still open with yen crosses looking ok..

  2. Sean Lee on February 28th, 2010 23:15 GMT

    Hey Bear, welcome back. Yen crosses still look very heavy so I see no reason to jump off that particular trend just yet. 122.50 is now the level I’m watching in EUR/JPY, what levels are important to you??

  3. Zeke on February 28th, 2010 23:39 GMT

    G’day Sean! I also remember a slight hint that a stronger A$ helps them with inflation concerns, no?

  4. Sean Lee on February 28th, 2010 23:51 GMT

    Morning Zeke. Yeah I believe they did say that but they tempered it with exporter worries re strong A$ etc.. Looks almost certain that they go 25 bps if I can believe what I’m hearing in the market

  5. puks on February 28th, 2010 23:56 GMT

    Morning Sean,

    You’re right. 25 bps is coming in tomorrow with no further rise in 1H of 2010. That rise will mostly likely be accompanied by dovish statement.

    So after the initial rally we could see a sell off.

  6. Zeke on March 1st, 2010 00:02 GMT

    Gotcha. I think I’m just going to repot my houseplants tonight ;) Lately, A/U has been uber-quiet before rate decisions. If it’s volatile beforehand I feel like it would be from being dragged around by the other Majors. I wish I was able to hang on to my .89 long. C’est La Vie!

  7. Zeke on March 1st, 2010 00:22 GMT

    The flag on my A/U H6 is what’s confusing me. It looks more like a tomahawk. Is there a name for this mysterious chart pattern? Looks too bullish to short, and too shaky to long. What are your thoughts on the CitiTech targets around .9250-.93 as a sell area Sean?

  8. Sean Lee on March 1st, 2010 00:24 GMT

    I haven’t read their latest report Zeke but it would certainly make sense. Sell at .93 and buy at .86 until something significant changes.

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