AUTOREFRESH 
Commodity currencies providing shelter from European storms
Greece teeters on the edge as the time to refinance maturing debt draws close. The pound shudders at the prospects of a hung parliament and huge out-bound M&A flows swamp the market. Where do you hide?
At least for today, the commodities currencies have made a compelling place to stick your cash. I’m not sure that will remain the case as equity markets are getting a seasonal lift as fresh cash is put to work at the beginning of the month. I’m not sure risk appetites will be quite as robust amidst so much uncertainty over whether the expected Greece debt guarantees will assuage Mr. Market.
An expected rate hike from the RBA tonight coupled with firm GDP from Canada are helping underpin the the currencies. Also helping is a disruption in Chilean copper supplies after the massive earthquake over the weekend.
AUD/USD offers extend up to the 0.9020 level (0.9011 is the intraday high so far). Stops sit above the 0.9070 high last Tuesday.
USD/CAD briefly probed below 1.0425 support. 1.0380 is the next downside target if gains are sustained for the Loonie.
J – is that 9070 on the Aussie for the stops please?
Yes, sorry. 0.9070. Fat fingers…
Thx J, assumed so (the number, not your fingers!)
Forget the polls and keep an eye on the bookies …
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/borisjohnson/7342739/Gordon-Brown-on-course-to-win-the-election-Youve-got-to-be-joking.html
For the RBA, last month 20 out of 20 economist last month said they would raise…all wrong. This Month 14 out of 19 saying rates will raise……with the lack of really big interest coming out of the end of the Chinese New Years, I think the odds are that they won’t raise….but that is just me….either way, silly that it is bought not knowing what they will do tonight.
The move in the aussie is also due to a) mutual fund monday (risk on), and b) the earthquake in chile, which impacts the supply of copper and its price. Beyond that, Sean called that they wouldn’t raise last month, and he’s called that they will rise this month. At the least, unless there’s some major breakdown in the market, I think aud/usd will hit .904.
Scalp of the day = sell CAD “now” (1.0421) , get out at February 22th -23rd’s low of around 1.0378.
JR the Mines are ok…Shanghai didn’t even take out their daily limit last night, roads messed up but not that much of a worry……lol, I hate Mutual Fund Monday Players…..the market has a way it likes to move during the day and they come in and mess it all up, they never follow the rules…..anyway, I was with Sean last month…in fact I kept shaking my head that entire day on why everyone was playing risk before the Announcement………but, this month…..I think they may still wait to see what happens, the Iron Ore talks and China Policy Talk March 5 and lack of Ship Rates to Surge up after holiday…..but we will see.
JR……How history repeats itself, “Trading Nymph on February 1st, 2010 19:13 GMT Today is Mutual Fund Monday……not very logical at all to buy Aussie before RBA meeting and Nikki and Hang Seng barely holding support and Shanghai Comp dropping….but that is just me.”