AUTOREFRESH 
Speculation grows about Chinese rate hike, possibly tomorrow
By Sean Lee || March 11, 2010 at 04:19 GMT
|| 10 comments || Add comment
Some analysts are now predicting that, after today’s data, the much anticipated rate hike might happen as soon as tomorrow. This would generally be bearish for the standard ‘risk’ trades with the logic being that a hike might slow Chinese growth down. I have no view on this, just reporting it as I hear it.
That would surprise me Sean,
I guess market is actually holding quite well, and probably thinking about the fact that chinese data taken during chinese new year periods are even more fake than usual
Jokes apart, we all know that 2009 was though for chinese exportations, and during chinese new years many, if not all the workers, go back to their hometowns to celebrate.
When orders are missing and there’s no incentive to go back to work soon, they just don’t go back soon….so this is my explanation of the poor industrial production.
I am sure we’ll see a small improvement next month.
What I am concerned about is prices, but in this case I also know that we are in the middle of a property prices bubble that is probably not going to explode.
Food and other goods prices also increased steadily in the last three years….but if GDP grows by 9 – 10% every year, what else can one expect?
take a second look at Potash & Baltic Index. Thanks Sean
Think that the rate hike is well priced into the market by now , been talked about for god knows how long – cant see it moving the market , infact will be a positive showing that china are actually aware of the situation . just my two pence worth
the meeting has not ended… i doubt they will hire when the meeting is on
It’s been a long winter. Think twice
Yen rose after China data?
http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=1026164
Gotta get some rest. Keep kicking my butt. Trade well my friends!
From what I read and talked to people on the ground, CPI/PPI rise will accelerate in the coming months, possibly CPI reaching 5% in 1H. Definitely a reserve ratio hike within a month. When will they hike deposit rates? No one knows.
Also, note that M1 growth rate is much higher than that of M2 growth rate. Not a good sign. Just another proof inflation will spike in the coming months.
Has the market fully priced in the rate hike? Don’t think so. Aussie at current level is dangerously overpriced, IMHO. Euro @1.36 is much a more valuable bargain than Aussie @0.91. Maybe the market is manipulated to affect the iron ore price negotiation. How else can you justify RBA officials speaking out to support Aussie? Or maybe it is just the FX market being FX market.
Excellent points, thanks Ping
I checked again, here’s the current RMB time deposit rate:
3 months, 1.71% p.a.
6 months, 1.98% p.a.
1 year, 2.25% p.a.
Feb. CPI growth rate, 2.7% p.a. And they say China manipulates its numbers.
I’m pretty certain CPI growth rate will be up, not down, in the coming months.
Fasten your seat belt, here comes the big one!