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EUR/CHF: downtrend reestablished as SNB goes missing

By   || March 16, 2010 at 23:57 GMT
|| 10 comments || Add comment

I refuse to trade pairs where there is intervention happening as it distorts the market and it’s usual workings. The danger (as the Bank of England learned all those years ago) in trying to put a floor on a currency is that when the floor disappears, the fall can be quite spectacular. There’s not much in the way of technical support until the 1.43 spike low. Resistance is at the previous floor of 1.4620.

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10 Responses to “EUR/CHF: downtrend reestablished as SNB goes missing”

  1. DC on March 17th, 2010 00:23 GMT

    bring back snb!! i could do with a few hundred free pips from the long order i have hovering 50 pips above the market ;)

  2. simao4 on March 17th, 2010 00:41 GMT

    hello Sean, how are you?what is yur clear view after FOMC today, i am still bearish from my side, what do you think ?

  3. Francesco on March 17th, 2010 00:58 GMT

    hi Sean, did EURCHF go below 1.45 yesterday during US session?

  4. Sean Lee on March 17th, 2010 01:10 GMT

    G’day Francesco. 1.4506 the low on EBS.

  5. Sean Lee on March 17th, 2010 01:13 GMT

    Hi Simao. Fed still in its holding phase as it waits for more verification from economic data but I think that the language will change next one or two meetings. Overall I’m still bullish EUR/USD for move back to 142 but I think the first s/t bull phase might be coming to an end at 13850 ish.

  6. Francesco on March 17th, 2010 01:18 GMT

    Sorry for the silly question, my platform was off for some time.

    I am long on EURCHF and sitting on a loss a bit below 1.46.
    Some swiss data are out tomorrow, but at this point i have no glue about it as it was a steady and slow downtrend.

    What I am particularly concerned of is that while EUR had some relative strenght against the other currencies so far this week, EURCHF did not react, speculators are probably on the piece, waiting for the absence of a floor to push it down more ;(

  7. jack on March 17th, 2010 01:40 GMT

    cesco, the news are for thursday morning, not to morrow. I made a mistake earlier on. One thing, it was long since i did not see the eurchf holding and recovering like it did today without the help of snb. ¿are we at bottom?…

  8. Francesco on March 17th, 2010 01:49 GMT

    hi Jack,

    thanks, I have checked it.
    Not sure about the recovery, at least some was on the cards as EUR gained around 150 – 200 pips against most of the currencies in the last three days, CHF was the only excpetion….

    let’s wait and see, as long as we are below 1.4560 / 80, I see these as short term bounce or coverings only…

  9. Francesco on March 17th, 2010 01:53 GMT

    but also, in case we have good news from the greek front, EURCHF could eventually gain momentum

  10. Francesco on March 17th, 2010 02:57 GMT

    1.4536 first resistance

    below 1.4630 downtrend is intact

    support at yesterday’s low, 1.4506

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