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Understandable why China fights attempts to strengthen the Yuan

By   || March 16, 2010 at 01:23 GMT
|| 4 comments || Add comment

The Chinese Press have a different take on the value of the Yuan to that of the Western Media but there can be no doubt that the USD/CNY level is still the elephant in the room and unless something is done soon to address the issue, the global imbalances which we are currently experiencing will evolve into much more serious problems.

In a true free market, the USD/CNY rate would not be at 6.82 but would be closer to 4.00. What would happen to China if the USD/CNY rate were to fall dramatically? If we go back to the time of the Plaza Accord in 1985, Japan was in a similar situation to where China is now. The idea of the accord was to weaken the USD (successful) and lower deficits (abject failure). USD/JPY fell from around 230 to 130 in about 3 years and then lost another 50% of its value as it fell to 80 in 1995. This had a terrible effect on the Japanese economy issuing in chronic deflation and leading to the lost economic decade.

Little wonder that China is fighting attempts to strengthen the CNY.

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4 Responses to “Understandable why China fights attempts to strengthen the Yuan”

  1. JR on March 16th, 2010 01:39 GMT

    Something has to give: the 10/10 solution whereby China gets 10% growth and the US gets 10% unemployment isn’t going to work, not when China is, in many instances, reverse engineering US and European goods (ie stealing technology and the right to monetize trademarked goods) and then flooding its biggest customer market with cheap knockoffs, sometimes made by child labor. Something has to give. In Japan it was so bad that their mainframes would run IBM software out of the box. But for China to amass a surplus through dodgy means and then question the US’ deficit is a bit much for people to take during a serious recession. One way or another, a change is going to come. And it’ll be easier for the US to gets its people to ‘Buy American’ than it will for China to replace the lost revenues. And without that growth, those tyrants are going to face a very angry populace. The problem isn’t the exchange rate- that is just the symptom. The root problem is unfair and deceptive trade practices. If China were to stop monetizing other companies’ trademarked goods, the imbalance would correct itself substantially. Of course, if Washington were to speak plainly about the matter, it probably would cause a trade war.

  2. FxZ on March 16th, 2010 03:19 GMT

    who will buy is debts then?

  3. FxZ on March 16th, 2010 03:19 GMT

    us debts

  4. FxZ on March 16th, 2010 03:35 GMT

    all the money china makes manipulating the currency, using child labour, not taking care of the world pollution,not repspecting civil rights and so on, are invested buying foregneir debts (u.s. most of the time) and invested in military equipments rather than being used for the poosr people salary increase,tha war is already started in chinese style long time ago and we didn t recognise it yet ,two options or we dicrease our (western) salary expectations to be competitive or we won t pay the debts which would lead to war (not the tade one…)

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