AUTOREFRESH 
AUD/USD looking a bit soggy
By Sean Lee || March 21, 2010 at 22:43 GMT
|| 7 comments || Add comment
The thing that worries me about the AUD at the moment is that very few people are short. Sure there are the usual rally sellers but they are not comfortable about building and holding longer term short positions; the carry hurts too much and the fundamentals are screamingly bullish. Ergo, the vast majority of market positions are long ones. It is the logical position to hold, just as it was two years ago but remember what happened then.
Having a look at the weekly AUD/JPY chart, there seems to be a distinct possibility that a Head-and-Shoulders can form at some time in the next few weeks. The right shoulder hasn’t formed yet so we shouldn’t jump the gun. If it does and if the ‘risk trades’ suddenly fall out of favour, watch out.
What level are you looking at for a break below for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY?
What level on the top side for the aud could be achievable do you think in the next few weeks , I was looking at about 95 ??
Edwin, if AUDUSD breaks below the 100-day MA and bullish trendline around .9060 then I think longs will start getting worried
Chris, if the bullish momentum can return in next few days then .9325 should be doable and possibly even 9410. A break above the latter opens up some blue sky and even 98 could be achievable but something will have to happen to reenergise the market in order for that to happen
Sean How do you think the aud/usd will react to this trial going on or not at all?
The Rio Tinto one Annie? No impact at all I’d say.
Yeah the Rio Tinto one . Thanks