Anybody have any idea of the catalyst for the GBP/USD purge today. Save the macro “UK debt burden” stuff, I’m looking for a fresh input that suddenly blasted the cross.
I get the fact that the JPY is strong across the board, too.
I’m stumped…
19 Responses to “I missed the catalyst for the GBP/JPY purge”
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AUTOREFRESH 
Maybe more sellers than buyers……..soorryy
but have a look at the deflation scenario and you will note that the ccys with large c/a surplusses are bid (jpy and chf) the rest is offered as the debtors are called.
TGIF
Michel
its friday Jamie…
my guess are the interest rate spreads US/UK and US/JY … to me I´ve a rule: don´t trade against the rate spreads … which I added to your 3 little rules
In my opinion, the traders in the RUR/USD are starting to take profits and sell off the buy positions they have, whichappears to be bringing the pair down sharply. It appears the GBP/JPY also started to drop about the same time. I don’t expect the GBP/JPY to go below 1.3200, but if it does, it shoulb be only for a limited number of pips, and should not drop below 1.3100. Just my opinion.
I think FX is ahead of stocks which are more manipulated.
just be ready for august. it’s going to be enjoyable .. (if you are in the right side)
imho, GBP sits in the middle of some pretty big global flows at the moment, so movements less UK-news dependent than maybe at other times.
In my opinion, the traders in the EUR/USD are starting to take profits and sell off the buy positions they have, which appears to be bringing the pair down sharply. It appears the GBP/JPY also started to drop about the same time. I don’t expect the GBP/JPY to go below 1.3200, but if it does, it shoud be only for a limited number of pips, and should not drop below 1.3100. Just my opinion.
Sorry, looks like I am suffering from FFS, Fat Finger Syndrom.
Clueless on the fundamentals. But after Cable’s “long day’ yesterday and putting it over-bought on the daily, it made perfect sense to take some profits in Cable, with global markets being weak. Plus today’s risk aversion, perfect mix for gbp/jpy weakness.
Victor– Good answer. Makes as much sense as any..
Hey Jamie…jpy crosses (esp gbp/jpy like you mentioned) took on the “broken elevator” effect after poor Mich numbers I believe.
plus all the factors Michael mentioned make it the perfect storm…I don’t think its over either.
I hope not. I’d like to see Cable get hit, another 1000 pips, personally! lol. Something odd in stocks. The daily MACD for spx, is in divergence/price. On a daily scale, that would generally get me bullish, as I would be anticipating trend direction change. But that 30 minute breakout I was talking about yesterday has happened, so that could mean that stocks are going to get killed. I hate to say it like that, but generally when MACD divergences happen in 10 and 60 minute charts, with strong price action, you can damn near bet everything you own that, price is going to continue in it’s strong trend. If MACD “signal line” doesn’t cross 0 line. I know, i’ve confused you. Basically, what i’m cautioning on is, daily MACD, could be acting like an intra day divergernce/price that shows good trend strength. That would be highly ugly. The move down, would be like the Titanic.
Uh, oh! Here we go!
■Michael Miller, the gbpusd is trading around 1.5308 now is it advisable to place buy order now and stop at 1.5450 since prediction of the cable said 1.5500/25
My goldbug friends, have been ragging me for being short. Coming up with every h.s. excuse they can think of, for the metal to go to $200,000 an ounce. Haven’t heard from them today.
Current cable price, is sitting on a great support area! I’m staying short, until I see more of a base and potential rise in price. Gets through this support, i’ll hold, obviously.
Hi Mike,
I’m a Goldbug … but also prepared to be flexible in the short term
it sure seems to be breaking to the downside, there seems to be a lot of support to get through in this 1180 area. But to my mind if this can be broken it looks like it could fall to 1160 without too much problem. Mind you this market can be such a beast – so many times I have seen potential profits disappear or losses mount up with lightening speed that I will take nothing for granted anymore.
Do you have a short target in mind?
Cheers, Paul
1110. That’s a Point and Figure target. In which, I find to be the most accurate. 1228/30, i’ll run for cover.
Ok thanks,
For what it’s worth I think that’s a good plan. Wide enough stop not to get thrown off by all the whipsawing and a good target.
I know of P&F but haven’t used it ( lot to learn ), but my own analysis and conclusions would say that 1110 is a realistic target.
Of course there is a long way to go, and this 1180 area seems key, a bit akin to the battle at Helm’s deep in Lord of the rings
I may be a goldbug but am not long at the moment and so wish you good luck in your trade
Cheers, Paul