AUTOREFRESH 
Time to start accumulating USD/CHF
By Sean Lee || July 21, 2010 at 00:38 GMT
|| 17 comments || Add comment
That’s what my old friend the GoV (Guru of Vietnam) reckons. He’s been in the FX market forever and uses a bit of everything in his analysis; fundamental and market information backed by technical indicators. He tells me that I should be accumulating USD/CHF below 1.05 and more so towards 1.02 but be ready to buy breaks if market momentum turns. His targets are 1.12 in the first instance and then 1.16.
This is a trade I like as I cannot see the point in buying CHF as a safe haven play. Yeah, I know, the market is always right blah blah blah but at some stage it will turn and I intend to be on board when it does.
G’day all.Tthe market is always right at the moment but we trade the future, so …Sean i hope GoV’s right cause it looks good to me too.
Yikes Sean! Does that mean I should unload the xau I bought @ 1181.5?
it is a good risk reward trade
There seems to be support off 1.0455 the last few days Sean, and price is right back onto the daily10 sma.
Atm, price is below the 61.8 fib of the .9909 Nov ’09 to 1.1730 Jun ’10 which is 1.0607
A daily close above 1.06 (also the weekly 50 sma) will add to the turning momentum case.
1.06 is a good line in the sand for a tight stop and a few hundred pip reward, as per GoV’s targets.
Hi Sean,
Is this the same friend that recommended buying 6 or 7 months ago? That was a great recommendation.
hey Sean… How long is the ring finger of your friend GoV?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/4223545/Ring-finger-length-linked-to-City-stockbrokers-success-claim-scientists.html
Don’t trade it Sean. But take a gander @ gbp/aud.
Sean’s pal gets my thumbs up I have been running gently long of usd/chf and eur/chf for about 10 days !!
Dafx, I think we should keep speculation as to digital measurements to a minimum, thankyou !
who knows where it may lead…ps. I have had a successful run
In a deflationary world CHF and gold are of little use. USD much better.
Sean
I am trading Swiss frank futures which is the inverse of USD/CHF and looking into put spread to take advantage of your recommendation. What is the time frame of this trade?
Hi Usman, Sean is away now till tomorrow…but I do know it’s a bigger picture view…weeks not days
thanks David. I am trying to pick b/w August and September put options. August would be cheaper obviously with little time value left.
That pair’s showing RSI, bullish divergence, on the daily chart. Definitely worth keeping your eyes on!
Hi Mike yes indeed…how are you cracking on ? Sterling Swiss ?
Hey Mike and David I’m out of a/j short until the late europe sell off. She looks long again. it was a nice short though.
The analisys is pretty easy: with unemployment below 3% and economy growing steadly, the CHF is undereveluated: a right estimation should put it above USD and EUR. While the USD, givin the gold reserves not backing it up since ’70s and the fakes around the world -without counting an economy definitelly out of the ’50s-60 bubble, well it’s doomed to go down, sooner or later -probably sooner as the GBP did. Result? USD investment are not smart in long term.. Then anybody can choose the forecast he likes…