AUTOREFRESH 
IMF: Spanish outlook uncertain; recovery likely to be weak and fragile
By Jamie Coleman || July 30, 2010 at 16:03 GMT
|| 15 comments || Add comment
- GDP seen falling 0.4% this year, growing 0.6% next year, rising 1.7% in 2012
- Deficit to fall to 7% of GDP next year, 1% above target
- Spain says IMF forecast too pessimistic
- IMF says banking reform needs to be accelerated
Pretty downbeat by IMF statndards as the genrerally try not to trod on too many toes…
EUR/USD is firm , however, at 1.3065.
It’s all about position squaring at this point. Most will wait until next week for fresh spec activity.
Hi Jamie, When I look at the treasury market risk is completely off…currencies risk on. Can you explain please? Is it people chasing yield?
Could be month-end duration extensions…fund managers often have certain benchmarks they need to hit at month-end. We’ll have to see it it lasts through Monday…
Thanks!
Anybody out there have a crystal ball as to what this market is going to do for the rest of the afternoon. Feels heavy to me, but that is pure speculation…
well as jamie said … mth end squaring
Depends on your fx pair, but I think we’re going to see a very slim range for the rest of the NY afternoon, as the trading bots keep things steady. Lows were bought on the majors this AM (based on VSA), retraces have been minimal & textbookish, and the S&P’s rebounded and may get positive, so big boys seem to be positioning for more upside next week. Since London didn’t sell off when they signed off, I don’t expect the NY bots to do so either, as low volume is their friend!
Kinda hoping that cable will at least fall back to the 1.5660s.
So anyway, umm speakin’ of fragile
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLdJwzSbM-E
and rain
Abbott seizes the lead
JULIA GILLARD has three weeks in which to salvage her campaign, with the latest Herald/Nielsen poll showing Tony Abbott and the Coalition would be swept to power if the election were held today.
Ms Gillard was accused of arguing against pension increases and paid parental leave. She denied both charges but the allegations were damaging. One MP said yesterday voters in his electorate were scared Ms Gillard would cut pensions if re-elected.
A further embarrassing leak emerged last night with News Ltd reporting that Ms Gillard had sent a former bodyguard, Andrew Stark, to represent her at meetings of the cabinet’s national security committee while she was deputy prime minister.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/abbott-seizes-the-lead-20100730-10zsa.html?autostart=1
Does the 1.3500 to 1.7400 cable move still have validity JC?
Cos this 1.5690 level is the 38.2% fibbie.
I never paid attention to fibos when they were being tested from the “opposite” direction, if you follow my meaning…38.2% would have been important on the way down from 1.7040 but not on the way back up, as far as I know, on the way back up…
That’s what I was wondering, ta
Then it will surely go to 1.5900 first
Yip
Got a channel line running across the March and April highs that could well entice it to 1.60 at this rate