Forex News | Currency News by Forexlive

according to a BIS report; amazing what growth and an influx of retail business can do !

Read more in this Wall Street Journal article

Bob Brown, Leader of the Australian Greens will hold a press conference in 10 minutes confirming that they are backing the Labour government, as expected

It’s the decisions of the three country Independents that will be the final decision makers and that could take into next week…..

June was 54.4

Some Federal Reserve officials were concerned that a decision to keep securities holdings unchanged would inadvertently signal an intention to resume large-scale asset purchases, minutes of the Aug. 10 meeting showed, according to this Bloomberg article

headline comment via Reuters from Japan’s Asahi News

The market is looking for a quarterly rise of 0.9% when the release comes out in just over two hours; overall the economy is looking good so I don’t expect anything drastic on the downside unless it’s a major surprise.

In 15 minutes we should have the AIG  Manufacturing Index ( last 54.4%) which should’nt impact the market.

The AUD is reacting to bigger issues for the moment

‘It must be our central task as a people”

Obama commenting during his speech announcing the final withdrawal of combat troops from Iraq….

The Australian elction saga continues and looks set for further argy-bargy as the two contenders try and woo those who now seem to have the ball in their court.

The Coalition have ostensibly 73 seats vs Labour’s ( current government) 72.

There are 4 Independents and 1 Green who have new-found power to side with one or the other to enable a government to be formed. This is the closest call for decades.

Bookmakers are expecting the Coalition to get the deal over the line offering approx 1.35 odds and Labour 3.3 last I saw.

However the length of time being taken will do no real favours; the biggest damage is that we have a couple of mavericks in the ‘decision makers’ that seem to be getting delusions of grandeur in their position……

• USD/JPY: The big level to watch today is the recent low just above 83.50 and dealers expect some actual intervention this time. If it doesn’t eventuate, watch out for big stops below.
• USD/CHF: Next major option level is 1.0000 which will be defended. We can expect more big stops below there.

Thanks to Dave who will cover for a few hours this morning while I attend to some family matters.

EUR/CHF will begin the new month at fresh record lows and this may encourage some of the bigger macro funds to join in the rout, those that aren’t already involved that is. I think it was Paul Tudor-Jones who said that his best trades often came when he realised he was wrong and then doubled up in the other direction. Well I’ve been very wrong on EUR/CHF for the last 10 big figures but I certainly don’t have the stomach to reverse strategy and double-up.

Regarding USD/JPY, if the BoJ don’t turn up to defend recent lows at 83.50 then I think we can ignore their blusterings (in fact most of the market seems to be already doing so). As Jamie mentions below, if corporate Japan are still on the offer then this pair is probably set for lower levels.

GBP seems to be losing a bit of its recent glitter whilst the EUR and AUD are jogging on the spot.

Good luck today.

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