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AUD/JPY technicals: Bearish but not broken down yet
By Sean Lee || August 24, 2010 at 21:38 GMT
|| 15 comments || Add comment
The bottom of the consolidative wedge pattern comes in around 73.40 and a clean break below there, and especially below 72.60, will confirm that the downtrend is back in control. Shorts definitely preferred on a medium term basis but I prefer to wait for the break lower or else sell rallies.
Hi Sean If the boj intervenes, how many pips do you think they’ll go for?
Hi Annie, a lot depends on the state of the market of course. I think the BoJ knows that the market isn’t really long Yen yet and that the buying is corporate or JGB related so if they step in and try to push USD/JPY up, it will not have too much impact. Initial jump of 100-150 pips probably would ensue if they started buying this AM but 8650 is probably now the medium term top
It’s just a feeling but I think if the nikkei gets slammed they’ll be in tonight. I’m long @ 83.95
I put my aud/cad short back on also .9362 also We’ll see what happens
Sean, What’s the latest odds for passage of the AUS mining tax?
Hi Carcrash, 50:50 still and we probably won’t have a definite answer until mid next week
Thanks. Looks like the market’s not too concerned about it now.
Good morning Sean,
Two points:
1. Market is sooo short yen crosses (esp EURJPY and USDJPY), do you expect a nasty short squeeze in next few sessions?
2. Markets almost hardly trade in a straight direction so while I expect USDJPY to trade lower, is it reasonable to expect a bounce to take out weak shorts/intervention fears etc?
Thanks
PS : I am long UJ from 83.90 and EJ from 107. Both positions are quite small and I am happy to hold them for a few weeks/months.
Cheers
Hi Puks, technically I’d be selling EURJPY back towards 10730, usd/jpy should trade 8350/8450 for this session I think
Thanks Sean.
If it doesn’t look promising today, I will cut my losses or hedge and re-assess later on.
Thanks
Japan’s futures are a tad in the black (for now) and I have a feeling the bulls are going to come out in full force! lol. I bought some aud/jpy down here. Decent risk/reward, short term trade. Rather overbought too. From the 4 hour, on in at least.
Looks good so far Mike, its certainly heavily o/s on the s/t indicators
Back at my laptop now. Hard to search and peck on the old handheld. Puks I agree with Sean I’m short eur/jpy just under 108 and set a s/l in the low 107′s in case of BoJ action. (just above us housing data consolidation) I still have my hedge on 109.1(real resistance at The mid 109.5 level) though so I’m just cutting the short, letting it run up and resetting a short hopefully higher up. On the bottom I would cut my short side in the low 105′s and experiment a bit. These are small orders though so I’m just having fun until the big guns leave the Hamptons. Remember sell high and buy low, and play the edges carefully when the range changes. (Short term next 2 sessions)
That’s one heck of a difference between futures and cash! I had + 15 on Nikkei, for futures. Sheesh. Were you watching futures, Sean?
By the way traders. I mentioned this during NY and figured i’d let you know that, both the weekly and daily spx technicals lined up perfectly today and are bearish. First time since December 08, that that’s happened. Good night and good luck!