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Japan may be forced to join China in the intervention game

By   || August 30, 2010 at 11:12 GMT
|| 23 comments || Add comment

You have to hand it to Japan. For years, all their regional trading partners have manipulated their currencies to remain competitive with China while Japan has kept a hands-off policy toward the JPY. Looks like that policy may be coming to an end.

The BOJ may be forced to actively manage its currency along the lines of South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, et al… That would lead to greater imbalances and a surge in the Japanese current account which will further distort US and European monetary policy as Japan looks to park the proceeds of its intervention into the capital markets of those economies.

Those global economic distortions are largely responsible for the mis-allocation of liquidity into every-riskier assets in order to try and generate meaningful returns in a low interest rate environment, setting the stage for another bubble and another crisis several hears hence.

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23 Responses to “Japan may be forced to join China in the intervention game”

  1. J on August 30th, 2010 11:48 GMT

    Can you please add some more details.. why and how will it affect.. Thanks.

  2. Jamie Coleman on August 30th, 2010 11:53 GMT

    China buys massive amounts of dollars and euros to keep its currency weak. Japan could do the same…become a constant presence in the currency markets…

  3. Hart on August 30th, 2010 12:12 GMT

    Long usd/jpy 84.97 if it gets hit. The gbp/aud long worked out well. It’s in no mans land now. Eur /Jpy touched the 20 sma as predicted. Good morning JC.

  4. N on August 30th, 2010 13:06 GMT

    Well if they buy a load of US dollars, when the US starts to recover, they will have made a good profit on the returns. So whats stopping them? polical pressure from other areas?

  5. Hart on August 30th, 2010 13:09 GMT

    N what happens to the usd when the news is good and not great?

  6. Jamie Coleman on August 30th, 2010 13:10 GMT

    Partly, yes. Plus they already have a trillion $ dollar reserves.

  7. N on August 30th, 2010 13:16 GMT

    Hart you think to short term, I doubt many cetral banks look at much lower then a daily chart if that.

  8. Hart on August 30th, 2010 13:19 GMT

    Yep your right on with that one N !

  9. Michael Miller on August 30th, 2010 13:29 GMT

    This could be a week of scalping, galore.

  10. Japan may be forced to join China in the intervention game – ForexLive (blog) at Satellite Broadband Internet on August 30th, 2010 14:01 GMT

    [...] Japan may be forced to join China in the intervention gameForexLive (blog)The BOJ may be forced to actively manage its currency along the lines of South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, et al? That would lead to greater … [...]

  11. Hart on August 30th, 2010 14:48 GMT

    I would love to get long eur/jpy just a bit above 106.25.

  12. John McConnell on August 30th, 2010 14:59 GMT

    Hart I hope you get the chance as I am short from 109.50 and would love to pick up about 80 more pips.

  13. Hart on August 30th, 2010 15:02 GMT

    Like a glove John! Smart trade @ 109.5 Good Job!

  14. Hart on August 30th, 2010 15:23 GMT

    hey JC spin us some youtube. Maybe some old Talking Heads?

  15. John McConnell on August 30th, 2010 15:26 GMT

    Smart, lucky, whatever. I just took a chance that japan was just mouthing off again….

  16. Hart on August 30th, 2010 16:03 GMT

    Hey John you may want to t/p before potus speaks.

  17. Hart on August 30th, 2010 16:07 GMT

    Although the 50 is about to cross the 20 on my m15. eur/jpy

  18. Hart on August 30th, 2010 16:08 GMT

    200 sry.

  19. John on August 30th, 2010 16:11 GMT

    I kind of expect him to say something stupid and make the market drop even further. I would imagine his people are trying to take advantage of the upswing in the market Friday and let him talk while everything’s looking better for the moment….

  20. Hart on August 30th, 2010 16:33 GMT

    I would love some Chinese cook book recipes.

  21. Hart on August 30th, 2010 17:03 GMT

    What’s that called, when a currency opens lower and closes higher on a intraday chart/

  22. Hart on August 30th, 2010 17:16 GMT

    The 1hr usd/jpy chart looks promising long. The 4hr looks iffy. There is a nice resistance level along 86. If it moves up I would be looking for 50 pips at best. Tight stops for me. I’m game for a small play though, and lowered my entry into 84.8′s.

  23. Easy to raise taxes… | ForexLive on September 10th, 2010 18:16 GMT

    [...] Jamie Coleman  || September 10, 2010 at 18:16 GMT || 0 comments || Add comment …when you can’t be bothered paying them yourselves… Share and [...]

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