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EUR/CHF: Interesting price action overnight

By   || September 2, 2010 at 00:38 GMT
|| 17 comments || Add comment

Despite the very heavy option-related selling below 1.3000 which took the market as low as 1.2850, EUR/CHF has bounced back very impressively. When a market bounces hard despite being in a strong downtrend and despite heavy selling still occuring, then we may be close to a bottom.

Another point to keep in mind is that the flat trendline support in USD/CHF comes in at 1.0020.

All music to the ears of a contrarian like myself but I’ve been burned a few times already so I will proceed with caution.

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Category: All, Asia
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17 Responses to “EUR/CHF: Interesting price action overnight”

  1. Francesco on September 2nd, 2010 00:47 GMT

    Hi Sean,

    I have managed to close my longs from 1,2990 to 1,3040 where I have opened a small short position with stop placed at entry level now.

    I guess we should try to buy around 1,29 with stops placed below the recent low and sell around 1,3110 – 1,3130 with stop above recent high at 1,3150

  2. zekelogan on September 2nd, 2010 00:50 GMT

    Sean, I shorted USDCHF yesterday and the bounce was definitely frustrating seeing as it brought me back to even a bit too fast for my liking. I’m sitting with it though, seeing as two separate retail brokerages are showing their traders sitting VERY long, one at 70% & another at 80%. I’d rather fade the retail crowd than the trend, for now ;)

  3. haniff ashburn on September 2nd, 2010 00:51 GMT

    sean san

    i have long aud/chf at 90.80 and 91.48
    also long usd/chf 10118
    all positions almost got stopped but i survived
    now in the money alneit small.

    time to short chf/euro and yen or gbp or nzd??.

  4. Hart on September 2nd, 2010 00:59 GMT

    gbp/aud just under 1.7 Sean

  5. Hart on September 2nd, 2010 01:00 GMT

    And Zeke. You did very well by me. Thank You!

  6. aziz on September 2nd, 2010 01:10 GMT

    Sean,
    Definitely, that’s the thing. Trying to fish bottoms is a dangerous undertaking. USDCHF should at least show decent signs of reversals.

  7. Sean Lee on September 2nd, 2010 01:11 GMT

    Hi Zak, if it gets above 10275 then we may see stops go off

  8. zekelogan on September 2nd, 2010 01:12 GMT

    Good to know, thanks ;)

  9. haniff ashburn on September 2nd, 2010 01:13 GMT

    gart san
    gbp/aud closed below 1.70 is an ominous sign,
    it has broken the long rectangle base. time to reassess.

  10. Sean Lee on September 2nd, 2010 01:13 GMT

    Hi Haniff, yes I know u like this pair. I’m not sure yet on VHF n as u say we may need better sign of basing

  11. Hart on September 2nd, 2010 01:18 GMT

    I love to hate ya. Your a sharpie!

  12. Hart on September 2nd, 2010 01:28 GMT

    Haniff you are correct SAN. It’s worth chasing KimoSabe. Those 10 pips are my friend. Haniff shoot us the 3 legged terror. Please? PHOTO BUCKET.COM or PICS.COM

  13. Hart on September 2nd, 2010 01:33 GMT

    Too late I’m in.

  14. Hart on September 2nd, 2010 01:47 GMT

    200 sma on the 15m eur/jpy @ 107.25

  15. Hart on September 2nd, 2010 02:02 GMT

    It’s all hedged and happy! See ya in London. I like gbp/aud a lot more than aud/usd. More upside plus it can do some spanky on eur/usd in London. Even eur/jpy hedges well. Me likey!

  16. Hart on September 2nd, 2010 02:47 GMT

    I’m out of gbp/aud now. All of the Asian markets are in full swing. Got a few pips and found a likely bottom for e/j. If ya want to stay in it I understand. Don’t forget the carry costs.

  17. Hart on September 2nd, 2010 03:00 GMT

    EUR/JPY looks like a frying pan turned upside down on the m5.

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