By Stephen Sandelius

PARIS (MNI) – Opposition in France to hiking the retirement age
remains widespread despite the disruption in public services and fuel
supply, and further protests are planned for next week even after the
reform bill has been passed by parliament.

Refusing demands to reopen negotiations, the government has
accelerated the voting process in the Senate, hoping to get approval by
Saturday — in time to assure the definitive ratification by both houses
next week during the autumn school vacation.

However, it is not at all certain that this timetable will
undermine the protest movement, since most families do not leave for
extended vacations during this period and others may cancel travel plans
for fear of being stranded somewhere with an empty gas tank.

With most of the country’s ports blocked and refineries shut down,
authorities are deploying the police and requisitioning transporters to
supply service stations. While there is enough fuel in depots for “weeks
and weeks” of consumption, the blockages have left one in five gas
stations dry, Energy Minister Jean-Louis Borloo said this week.

Economic activity is suffering. Road repairs have been interrupted
in some areas for lack of asphalt. The Union of Chemical Industries
claims the strikes are costing E100 million a day in lost sales. Air
France estimates its losses at E5 million each strike day.

In an Ipsos survey of small firms published Friday by the business
daily La Tribune, 43% said their activity had been hampered by the
strikes and fuel shortages. “All the results of the survey have been
affected and the sentiment of business leaders that emerges is one of
urgent exasperation,” commented Ipsos director Yves Fradier.

However, Barclays economist Laurence Boone writes that “for the
moment, the overall impact on the economy is not significant when we
compare the number of strike days to the benchmark of 1995. In 1995,
Insee estimates that the total of 22 days of strikes cost 0.2 point of
GDP in a quarter.”

Boone notes that, “to date, there have been only a few days of
strikes, and these were not observed 100% thanks to the minimum service
law.”

Despite the daily hassles that commuters and transporters face,
overall public support for the protest movement shows little sign of
flagging. A BVA survey conducted Wednesday and Thursday showed that 69%
backed the strikes and rallies, up from 67% a week early. There was
overwhelming support in all age categories except for those over 65,
where it slipped to 49%.

Asked specifically about public transport strikes conducted in
hopes of blocking the reform, 52% of those polled by BVA were in favor,
compared to 50% in the previous poll. People were more hesitant about
the participation of students in the rallies, which has been accompanied
by incidents of vandalism spotlighted by the media. On this issue,
support slipped from 51% to 48%.

Defending the reform bill in the National Assembly this week, Prime
Minister Francois Fillon reminded that “the pension reforms in 1993,
2003 and 2007 had also sparked protests, strikes, rallies and opposition
in this assembly as well as in the Senate.”

However, once these reforms were promulgated, they “were accepted
by a very large majority of our citizens,” Fillon continued. “And I
predict, after a while, this reform will gain broad national consensus,
like the others.”

Today’s protesters have not forgotten that a new type of work
contract (CPE) aimed at facilitating first-time employment was shelved
in 2006, after it had already been passed into law, due to the
unrelenting protest of young people.

In contrast to the CPE, however, the government has staked its
fiscal credibility on the application of the pension reform,
particularly on pushing back the retirement age by two years. It is
difficult to imagine an about-face at this point.

But even if the reform is applied, as Fillon has promised, its life
expectancy may be limited. Officials are now talking of further reforms
in 2013. Before then, voters will have the opportunity to elect a new
government.

Given the record-low popularity of President Nicolas Sarkozy, the
odds today are not favorable for his re-election. The opposition
Socialist Party has pledged to rescind the most contested element of the
reform, namely the hike in the minimum retirement age to 62.

Implacable demographic trends argue for a later retirement age, if
only to keep the pay-as-you-go pension system financially afloat. But
with some luck, a different government might devise a more flexible
reform that would encounter less frontal opposition.

–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; Email: stephen@marketnews.com

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