AUTOREFRESH 
Interbank market settles after early stop-loss hunts
By Sean Lee || October 24, 2010 at 19:44 GMT
|| 13 comments || Add comment
It looks like there were a number of speculative shorts of EUR/USD and AUD/USD who had been hoping for some dramatic pro-USD statements from G20 officials. These shorts have stopped out this morning and that’s what caused the early rush.
EUR/USD has now settled around 1.3975, USD/JPY 81.20, AUD/USD .9860 and cable 1.5680.
Greetings. Hope you’ve all been doing fab
Here’s something that’s well worth monitoring: EURUSD diamond top
yup chart work in currency war ? politics ? USD going down because all like it except Japan ? .. I don’t trust tehnical at all, is sign but…
Hi Blackday. Have a look at the AUDUSD…same pattern there as well?
wat do u mean by EU diamond top? it is bullish or bearish formation?
thanks
Nice Blackday thanks.
Andrew, generally speaking it’s a strong reversal pattern
Potential signal of a reversal Andrew. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/diamondtop.asp
can it go to 1,3986 first bfore bearish reversal? or wats do u think the highest this morning? thanks
Blackday, re the diamond top:
I think it looks like a pretty good formation, but the reliability of a breakdown would be much greater if the apex of the diamond coincided with the top of a fifth wave.
As it stands it looks like move off the 1.4159 highs was a clear 3 waves with reasonable equality, and was hence likely a wave 4 (of C). This would imply we need to make a marginal new high before any genuine breakdown worth trading.
For the diamond top to play out in a bearish breakdown form your chart we’d end up with a (really) truncated 5th wave, which is unlikely.
Any thoughts?
AU has hopped its head above the 4h trend line.
http://www.ukimagehost.com/view/cb09b989abba2df2.jpg
Based purely and simply on the formation taking shape now it’s possible that price is forming a diamond top BUT there are several other indications that suggest it’s unlikely to play out in a drop for the moment, notably what is now an inherent element to EURUSD bullishness, USD’s weakness; anyone see sings of that abating? OK – rhetorical question! The other is the long/short ratio which I read as 61% short EURUSD positions – this a strong bias which is hard to ignore. What would nail the formation for me is if we were see price break and close below the lower rising trendline where I’d play a limit short starting from the upper trendline to avoid a head fake. It would also give us the opportunity to place a stop above the Oct 15th high which would make me feel fairly comfortable in the risk/reward stakes.
What I’ve been following on the daily chart is the x2 May – Jul low -high @ 1.4029 as it was here that I thought we’d see either a full .618 retracement of this year rally (alt. Aug – Oct rally) or an impulsive break to 1.4226 = May – Jul low – high 1.61 extension (perhaps your marginal new high, Mimi?) before dropping back (a break above there and it’s looking good for a pop to the .786 retracement of the Dec ’09 – Jun ’10 high – low @ 1.4373).
Giles – yes it could be seen that way – well spotted.
Agreed Blackday,
My target zones for upside are very similar. And the sentiment positioning on the USD index is *extremely* net short, with commercials long – so we should see a bottom (at least short-term) fairly soon. The USD also looks to be in a C wave, requiring a marginal new low to create a 5th wave. I’m expecting to see a turn some synchronicity in a turn of Euro/USD/US stocks this week. We shall see!
Good luck to us both