AUTOREFRESH 
AUD/JPY contrarian trade
By Sean Lee || March 31, 2011 at 23:36 GMT
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I know there are a few contrarians like me out there looking for a possible 300 pip turnaround and I think AUD/JPY might be worth a look later on today.
I don’t think it’s worth the risk entering close to current levels but if AUD/USD breaks above the 1.0375 option level and if USD/JPY stalls near the 200-day MA, then AUD/JPY might be worth shorting. I’m guessing that the cross would be somewhere in low 87′s then, so selling with a stop above 88.00 and a target around 84.50 looks like a potentially good risk-reward trade. Just a thought.
Hi Sean and good morning. What’s your take on EURUSD for today and the payroll on Friday London/NY time?
Reuters) – Japan will repatriate more funds than markets expect to finance its reconstruction efforts following its devastating earthquake and tsunami, Mohamed El-Erian, co-chief investment officer of top bond fund PIMCO, said on Thursday
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/31/us-pimco-elerian-economy-idUSTRE72U3QV20110331
Chris, I presume thar El- Erian is deeply stucked with A LOT OF YEN. This is the second time he says that. The first one was a couple of days after the quake. He was winning a lot of money….Now he may be loosing quite a lot…. Anyway, I dont think he is very reliable at all….In the last year or so, he was wrong most of the time….
Interest Rate Hikes Necessary To Rein In Excess Liquidity http://www.cs.com.cn/english/
El-Erian says “I look at the numbers and I believe there will be more repatriation than the markets think right now”. So Mo, what are these numbers?
Yeah Carlos, I am going to go with the side that says there is no need for significant repatriation (unless El-Erian cares to share some real numbers) and that the hit to Japanese production will hit the trade surplus, thus reducing demand for yen, thus weakening it.
Freeze said the same thing from Tokyo companies will need to realise divs etc in the next few months and bring home yen to pay for major rebuilds show a profit etc yr end coming up June. He also expects 3 mth Tankan to be similar.
Sean who is selling into EUR? above 141.70 looks a bit coordinated like the other night with Big Panda on GBP. See swissy is slowly making a bit of a comeback to 92 again.
The Truth About the Yen.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704559904576228133303241582.html