Forex News | Currency News by Forexlive

• Gold soars to fresh record at $1569.25
• US personal income rises 0.5% in March, spending up 0.6%
• Core PCE rises 0.9% year-over year
• US employment cost index rises 0.6% in Q1
• Chicago PMI dips to 67.6 from 70.6
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment 69.8 final in April from 69.6 preliminary
• EU: European banking sector needs substantial restructuring before can be called healthy
• Ireland cuts 2011 GDP forecast to +0.8% from 1.7%
• US 10-year note falls 2.5 bp to 3.285%; lowest since March 26
• Oil rises $0.80 to 113.67

EUR/USD decoupled from commodities today failing to follow gold as it rallied about $25 late in the trading day. EUR ends the session at 1.4809, it’s low for the day, after reaching 1.4878 first thing this morning.

GBP/USD made a strong showing today, spurred by the enchanting tale of a prince and princess. We popped as high as 1.6722 in early afternoon trade. EUR/GBP fell after month-end requirements were finished at today’s fixings.

AUD/USD and CAD both performed strongly, buoyed by gains in gold. Silver ended up lower on the day and copper was quite weak, but never mind all that and just close your eyes and buy.

USD/CHF ended off its lows but fell to a fresh all-time low at 0.8622 before ending at 0.8655. Moderately hawkish talk from the SNB’s Hildebrand along with a continued crackdown by the Iranian-backed Syrian government against protestors helped underpin the franc.

US DATA: Apr farm prices +1.2%.

US DATA: In Trepp’s preliminary Q1 estimates, the delinquency rate
for single family first-lien mortgages at U.S banks decreased a tenth
from 12.8% to 12.7%, while nonaccrual or seriously delinquent loan
rates remained flat at 4.8%. See MNI Main wire.

By Ian McKendry

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The decline in U.S bank loan delinquencies
slowed in the first quarter, according to estimations by Trepp, a data
analytics firm, in a recent report.

Using earnings and call report filings, Trepp estimated that
delinquencies for residential and commercial mortgages fell slightly in
the first quarter as did commercial and industrial, non-real estate loan
delinquencies, while construction loan delinquencies increased.

Trepp’s findings come ahead of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation’s Quarterly Banking Profile report to be released in May.

According to Trepp’s preliminary first quarter estimates, the
delinquency rate for single family first-lien mortgages at U.S banks
decreased a tenth from 12.8% to 12.7%, while non-accrual or seriously
delinquent loan rates remained flat at 4.8%.

Trepp cited the high volume of home foreclosures and the continued
downward pressure on housing prices as a primary reason single family
first-lien mortgages continue to struggle.

On the commercial side, Trepp said the delinquency rate for
commercial mortgages fell from 5.4% to 5.3%. The results were more
varied with some banks experiencing improvements while others saw
declines.

Trepp said the non-accrual rate for commercial mortgages did go up
a tenth to 4.0% and that the overall decline in the delinquency rate
“highlights the lackluster nature of the economic recovery so far.”

The only loan category to deteriorate further in the first quarter
was construction loans which went from a delinquency rate of 18.0% to
18.3%. The non-accrual rate increased from 14.0% to 14.5%.

Trepp said the delinquency rate increased despite an rise in
originations because the amount of outstanding loan balances has
declined.

As for commercial and industrial, as well as non-real estate loans,
Trepp estimated the delinquency rate declined from 3.1% to 2.9%, which
would be the lowest for that category since the fourth quarter of 2008.
The non-accrual delinquency rate is expected to improve from 2.2% to
2.1%.

“Recent data indicate that loan volumes in the C&I segment have
finally turned the corner,” the Trepp report said.

Trepp said its estimates for fourth quarter U.S bank loan
delinquencies overshot the FDIC’s figure by 10 basis points while the
non-accrual rate estimate was nearly spot on.

** Market News International New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$, MAUDS$]

Gold traded as high as $1569.25 on its latest rampage.

Oil popped briefly above $114.00 and now trades at $113.80.

AUD is at 1.0975, chipping away at offers protecting 1.10 barriers.

USD/CAD is at levels not seen since late 2007, now at 0.9455.

The Journal had a high profile story this morning on the lack of US concern over the weaker dollar.

There is basically one reason for that: It comes at little cost.

Look at the US bond market. US 10 year notes are at their lowest yields in over  month, now at 3.29%

It is really hard for me to buy into the notion that we are in anything other than another 2008-style speculative commodities bubble. The players are the same (hawkish Trichet/dovish Bernanke) , the Chinese are buying each and every commodity under the sun, the dollar is headed to zero…

And don’t tell me the only reason yields are low is because the Fed is buying. Yields bottomed for this cycle in October, weeks before QE2 even began…QE2 is coming to an end, and the market knows it…

Somebody is right, and somebody is wrong. I’m betting the bond market is right and the commodities market is wrong.

By Chris Cermak

WASHINGTON (MNI) The Institute for Supply Management’s survey of
manufacturing activity is expected to fall slightly off its highest
levels in six years when the latest figures are released Monday, but
economists expect the manufacturing sector to continue its brisk
expansion over the next few months.

The April ISM purchasing managers index is forecast to drop to 60.0
from 61.2 in March, according to a survey of economists by Market News
International. The index held above 60.0 for all of the first quarter,
reaching a six-year high of 61.4 in February.

“It’s a modest slowdown from the March print,” Jacob Oubina, a
senior U.S. economist with RBC Capital Markets in New York, said in an
interview. “You’re still operating at an extremely high level of
activity here.”

April regional manufacturing data from the Federal Reserve banks in
Philadelphia and New York also signaled ongoing strong growth, despite
falling off near-historic highs. Company profits have surged, with
Caterpillar’s first-quarter earnings and revenue shooting past
expectations on Friday.

The gains in manufacturing outpaced growth in the wider economy
over the first quarter, and demand growth has been pushed up in part by
inflation from rising commodity prices. The ISM’s prices paid index
climbed to 85.0 in March and is expected to remain above 80 in April.

U.S. first-quarter GDP rose at a 1.8% annual rate according to
advance estimates Thursday, even as factory production climbed at an
annual pace of 9.1% over the first three months, according to Federal
Reserve data. Capacity utilization in manufacturing climbed to 75.3% in
March, up nearly 11 percentage points from a low reached in June 2009,
but remains off an average of 79% over the last three decades.

Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEA Global in New York,
said the surging energy costs have yet to have a real negative impact on
manufacturing and may be easing the supply shortage worries that an
ongoing high ISM number would suggest.

“I feel like the supply chain to a degree is starting to make a
comeback,” Clarke said in an interview. “Growth in demand is clearly
inflationary at this point … but I don’t see a 60 in April as
necessarily knocking off the wheels.”

One unknown lies in the aftermath of Japan’s earthquake in March.
While the devastation has clearly disrupted supply chains in the
automotive sector, RBC’s Oubina said other U.S. manufacturing industries
remain “unsure” of the earthquake’s impact.

Regional surveys of purchasing managers have signaled that the
buoyant mood in manufacturing is easing slightly. Friday, ISM chapters
in Chicago and New York both reported drops in their headline numbers.

For manufacturing to continue at a strong clip, new orders may need
to pick up to keep pace with production. The March ISM index showed a
strong gain in production to 69.0 but a drop in new orders to 63.3.
Supplier delivery also rose to 63.1.

The April ISM Manufacturing Survey will be released at 10 a.m. ET
Monday.

–Chris Cermak is a reporter with Need to Know News

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MAUDS$]

The government now sees 0.8% growth in 2011, down from 1.7%. Next year, they expect 2.5%, down from 3.2%.

The 2011 deficit will reach 10% of GDP this year, up from a 9.4% forecast. 2012 is seen at 8.6% from an earlier 7.3% forecast.

The debt to GDP ratio will reach 111 from 98.6% this year, and 116% from 102.0% next year, Reuters reports.

Clever of my Irish cousins to bury the news on a Friday afternoon ahead of a long weekend…

Forex swaps and forward will be exempt from Dodd-Frank riles that would have required that they be t settled via clearing houses. Existing practices already limit risk, the Treasury says.

Forex swaps are so important that any disruptions could have had a negative economic impact, the Treasury said.

How does this impact retail FX traders? Not one bit.

Forwards are essentially an interest rate product, reflecting the differences between rates in two countries, not a change in the underlying exchange value of the currencies.

Global warming caused the tornadoes in the US south earlier this week…

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