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EUR/USD is trading around 1.4390 and USD/JPY is at 77.20 as the market awaits the latest developments out of Washington. Risk pairs like EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF are likely to be whippy this morning as the headlines hit the newswires. Good luck out there.

By   || July 31, 2011 at 20:49 GMT
Category: All, Asia || Tags: , , , || 6 comments || Add comment

US Senate GOP Blocks Reid Debt Plan; Key Talks Continue W/Admin

–Senate Republicans Block Reid Debt Hike Plan on Procedural Vote
–Sen. Reid: ‘Hopeful and Confident’ Debt Hike Deal ‘Can Be Done’
–Sen. Reid: Senators Should Stay Close To Capitol, No Baseball Games

By John Shaw

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Senate Republicans voted Sunday to continue
their filibuster of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s debt hike plan,
but this vote appeared to be a formality because intense bipartisan
discussions are continuing on debt limit and deficit reduction
legislation.

The Senate vote to end debate on Reid’s debt hike plan was 51 to
49, but the motion failed because 60 votes were needed.

In comments after the Senate vote, Reid said the bill could still
serve as the vehicle to carry any final debt ceiling package first
through the Senate and then through the House.

Speaking after the vote, Reid said he is “hopeful and confident”
that a final agreement can be reached today. If an agreement is
reached, it is very unlikely the Senate would vote on it before Monday.

But Reid urged senators to stay close to the Capitol Sunday.

“I wouldn’t suggest a ball game,” Reid quipped.

Reid said intense talks continue “downtown,” a reference to the
White House.

Top administration officials are in talks with Democratic and
Republican leaders.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is taking a lead role in
representing Republicans.

McConnell said earlier Sunday that Congress and President Obama are
“very, very close” to an agreement to increase the statutory debt
ceiling and cut spending.

McConnell said there is a “potential agreement within our reach.”

McConnell indicated the agreement would increase the debt ceiling
until the end of 2012, cut spending by $1 trillion now and then cut
spending by about $2 trillion later in the year based on the work of
special congressional panel.

This panel would seek its cuts from both entitlement reforms and
tax reforms, McConnell said.

If a debt ceiling agreement is reached, it would be placed on the
Reid bill which is still pending in the Senate and voted on by the upper
chamber, possibly on Monday. It would then be sent to the House for a
final vote.

Moving a controversial bill through both chambers in a few days
will be difficult, especially since it will require a tenuous coalition
of Democratic and Republican lawmakers to support it.

The U.S. has already reached its $14.29 trillion debt ceiling.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has said that Congress must pass
legislation increasing the debt ceiling by August 2, this coming
Tuesday.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$]

By   || July 31, 2011 at 18:25 GMT
Category: All, Mkt News || Tags: || 0 comments || Add comment

Zandi says potential deal should retain AAA

Washington’s favorite economist…

Any deal which preserve the US AAA rating should be enough to spark a few days of short-covering in USD/CHF and EUR/CHF. Until the next European shoe drops…

By   || July 31, 2011 at 17:47 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Politics/Policy, Regions || Tags: || 9 comments || Add comment

US Reid: ‘Cautiously Optimistic’ Debt Ceiling Deal Is In Reach

–Senate Majority Leader: Biden Now ‘Hopeful’ Accord Is Coming Together
–’There Is No Agreement That Has Been Made’
–’One Problem’ Could Unravel Debt Hike Accord
–Agreement Must Boost Debt Ceiling At Least Until Jan, 2013

By John Shaw

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid Sunday said
he’s now “cautiously optimistic” that an agreement can be reached today
on a plan to increase the debt ceiling and cut budget deficits.

In remarks on the Senate floor, Reid said he has spoken with Vice
President Joe Biden several times Sunday and the vice president is
“hopeful” an agreement is within reach.

But Reid also offered cautionary words.

“There is no agreement that has been made … . We’re not there
yet,” he said.

He also warned that “one problem can stop the entire agreement”
from being concluded.

Reid said one requirement that Democrats will demand is that the
debt ceiling increase extend at least until January, 2013.

“Any agreement has to have a long-term approach,” he said. “This
will be done,” he said.

Reid took several tough jabs at House Republicans, saying their
week-long effort last week to pass a debt hike bill was a total waste of
time and has brought the U.S. to the brink of default.

“Compromise is the only way forward,” he said.

Reid indicated that the Senate’s procedural vote Sunday afternoon
is of little consequence. He said the underlying Senate bill will be the
vehicle to carry any debt limit compromise through both the Senate and
House in the coming days.

Reid’s remarks were similar to those made by Senate Minority
Leader Mitch McConnell who said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” Sunday that
Congress and President Obama are “very, very close” to an agreement to
increase the statutory debt ceiling and cut spending.

McConnell said there is a “potential agreement within our reach.”

McConnell indicated the agreement would increase the debt ceiling
until the end of 2012, cut spending by $1 trillion now and then cut
spending by about $2 trillion later in the year based on the work of
special congressional panel.

This panel would seek its cuts from both entitlement reforms and
tax reforms, McConnell said.

The Senate is scheduled to hold a procedural vote at 1 p.m. Sunday.

If a debt ceiling agreement is reached, it would be placed on this
bill pending in the Senate and voted on by the upper chamber, possibly
on Monday. It would then be sent to the House for a final vote.

Moving a consequential bill through both chambers in a few days
will be difficult, especially since it will require a complicated and
tenuous coalition of Democratic and Republican lawmakers to support it.

The U.S. has already reached its $14.29 trillion debt ceiling.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has said that Congress must pass
legislation increasing the debt ceiling by August 2, this coming
Tuesday.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$]

By   || July 31, 2011 at 16:55 GMT
Category: All, Mkt News || Tags: || 0 comments || Add comment

US’s McConnell Repeats ‘Very, Very Close’ To Debt Deal W/Obama

–Senate Minority Leader McConnell: Debt Deal ‘Within Reach’
–Sen. McConnell: Signals Plan Would Hike Debt Ceiling Til End of 2012
–Sen. McConnell: Plan Sees $1T in Spending Cuts Now, More Later
–Sen. Schumer: Still Much To Be ‘Determined’ in Debt Deal

By John Shaw

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell Sunday
said Congress and President Obama are “very, very close” to an agreement
to increase the statutory debt ceiling and cut spending.

Appearing on CBS’s ‘Face The Nation,” McConnell said there is a
“potential agreement within our reach.”

“I think we’re very close,” he said.

McConnell indicated the agreement would increase the debt ceiling
until the end of 2012, cut spending by $1 trillion now and then cut by
about to $2 trillion based on the work of special congressional panel.

This panel would seek its cuts from both entitlement reforms and
tax reforms, McConnell said.

Speaking after McConnell, Sen. Chuck Schumer agreed with the main
elements of the possible deal but emphasized that no agreement has been
reached.

“A lot of things haven’t been decided yet,” he said, adding that a
number of key issues haven’t been resolved yet as well as “hundreds of
details.”

The Senate will come into session at noon Sunday and both McConnell
and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are likely to give updates.

The Senate is scheduled to hold a procedural vote at 1 p.m. Sunday.

If a debt ceiling agreement is reached it would be placed on a bill
pending in the Senate and voted on by the upper chamber, possibly on
Monday. It would then be sent to the House for a final vote.

Moving a consequential bill through both chambers in a few days
will be difficult, especially since it will require a complicated and
fragile coalition of Democratic and Republican lawmakers to support it.

The U.S. has already reached its $14.29 trillion debt ceiling.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has said that Congress must pass
legislation increasing the debt ceiling by August 2, this coming
Tuesday.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$,M$$CR$]

By   || July 31, 2011 at 15:26 GMT
Category: All, Mkt News || Tags: || 0 comments || Add comment

Latest on the potential budget deal

  • A debt ceiling increase of up to $2.1 to $2.4 trillion (depending on the size of the spending cuts agreed to in the final deal).
  • They have now agreed to spending cuts of roughly $1.2 trillion over 10 years.
  • The formation of a special Congressional committee to recommend further deficit reduction of up to $1.6 trillion (whatever it takes to add up to the total of the debt ceiling increase).  This deficit reduction could take the form of spending cuts, tax increases or both.
  • The special committee must make recommendations by late November (before Congress’ Thanksgiving recess).
  • If Congress does not approve those cuts by December 23, automatic across-the-board cuts go into effect, including cuts to Defense and Medicare. This “trigger” is designed to force action on the deficit reduction committee’s recommendations by making the alternative painful to both Democrats and Republicans.
  • A vote, in both the House and Senate, on a balanced budget amendment.

From ABC News.

By   || July 31, 2011 at 13:48 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Politics/Policy, Regions || Tags: || 5 comments || Add comment

Framework of deal coming together

Looks a lot like the Boehner plan, without the Balanced Budget Amendment provision…

By   || July 31, 2011 at 13:20 GMT
Category: All, Americas, Politics/Policy, Regions || Tags: || 0 comments || Add comment

US Senate Delays Key Procedural Vote Until Sunday Afternoon

–Senate Majority Leader’s Decision To Delay Suggests Bid For Debt Deal
–Senate Adjourns Saturday After Day of Conflicting Signals
–House Votes To Kill Sen. Reid’s Debt Bill
–Hill GOP Suggests Deal Is Near, Sen. Reid Disputed Positive Assessment

By John Shaw

WASHINGTON (MNI) – A confusing, volatile day on Capitol Hill took
yet another turn when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid late Saturday
night postponed a key procedural vote on debt limit legislation from 1
a.m. Sunday to 1 p.m. Sunday.

Reid appears to have postponed the Senate vote for 12 hours to give
congressional leaders and the White House more time to craft an
agreement on debt ceiling legislation as the Tuesday deadline ominously
approaches.

Speaking on the Senate floor, Reid said the delay in the Senate
vote is designed to give debt limit negotiators “as much room as
possible to do their work.”

The status of debt limit talks remains unclear.

At around 4 p.m. Saturday, House Speaker John Boehner and Senate
Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters that they were in direct
and intense talks with President Obama on resolving the debt ceiling
impasse.

Boehner said he was “confident” an agreement can be reached with
Obama and legislation passed by Congress to avoid a default.

McConnell also said he was “confident and optimistic” an agreement
was within reach.

He said he had been in contact with both Obama and Vice President
Biden, adding that the highest levels of the administration were “fully
engaged” with Congress in solving the debt ceiling impasse.

“We’re going to get a result,” McConnell said, adding “our country
is not going to default.

But after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and House Minority
Leader Nancy Pelosi concluded a 90 minute meeting with Obama at the
White House Saturday afternoon, Reid came to the Senate floor to say
that no agreement was imminent.

The House voted Saturday to reject the debt ceiling package
assembled by Reid on a 246 to 173 vote. After the House vote, Majority
Leader Eric Cantor said the House would be in session briefly Sunday for
a pro-forma meeting but would not resume legislative business until
Monday.

It is still assumed on Capitol Hill that the final debt hike
package will blend aspects of the plans drafted by House Speaker John
Boehner and Reid.

If an agreement is reached it would be placed on a bill pending in
the Senate and voted on by the upper chamber, possibly on Monday. It
would then be sent to the House for a final vote.

Moving a consequential bill through both chambers in a few days
will be difficult, especially since it will require a complicated and
fragile coalition of Democratic and Republican lawmakers to support it.

The U.S. has already reached its $14.29 trillion debt ceiling.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has said that Congress must pass
legislation increasing the debt ceiling by August 2, this coming
Tuesday.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$]

By   || July 31, 2011 at 05:15 GMT
Category: All, Mkt News || Tags: || 0 comments || Add comment

US’s Boehner, McConnell: ‘Confident’ Will Get Debt Deal W/Obama

–Congressional Republican Leaders Signal Debt-Hike Breakthrough Near
–House Speaker Boehner: ‘Confident’ Debt Ceiling Impasse Will End Soon
–Rep. Boehner: GOP In Direct, Intense Talks With Obama on Debt Hike
–Sen. McConnell: White House Now ‘Fully Engaged’ On Debt Hike Deal
–President Obama Meeting With Sen. Reid, Rep. Pelosi

By John Shaw

WASHINGTON (MNI) – In what appears to be a significant breakthrough,
House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell
Saturday afternoon said that they are in direct and intense talks with
President Obama on the debt ceiling impasse and believe an agreement can
reached.

At a briefing outside of Boehner’s office, the Speaker said he is
“confident” an agreement can be reached with Obama and legislation
passed by Congress to avoid a default.

He did not indicate what the terms of the agreement are likely to
be.

McConnell also said he is “confident and optimistic” an agreement
is within reach.

He said he has been in contact with both Obama and Vice President
Biden, adding that the highest levels of the administration are “fully
engaged” in solving the debt ceiling impasse.

“We’re going to get a result,” McConnell said.

“Our country is not going to default,” he added.

Obama has been meeting this afternoon with Senate Majority Leader
Harry Reid and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to review the
legislative impasse on the debt ceiling.

The House voted Saturday to reject the debt ceiling package
assembled by Reid on a 246 to 173 vote.

The Senate voted Friday 59 to 41 to reject Boehner’s debt hike
plan.

The U.S. has already reached its $14.29 trillion debt ceiling.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has said that Congress must pass
legislation increasing the debt ceiling by August 2, this coming
Tuesday.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$]

By   || July 30, 2011 at 20:45 GMT
Category: All, Mkt News || Tags: || 0 comments || Add comment

In Retaliatory Vote,US House Defeats Sen Reid Debt-Hike Plan

–In Mostly Party Line Vote, House Rejects Senate Democratic Bill
–House Majority Leader: House Will Return To Legislative Session Monday
–Senate Republicans Pledge To Block Reid Bill In Senate
–Washington Waits For Reid and McConnell To Begin Negotiations

By John Shaw

WASHINGTON (MNI) – In a vote orchestrated for both retaliation and
symbolism, the House voted Saturday to reject the debt ceiling package
assembled by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

The House voted 246 to 173 to defeat the Reid bill. It was
considered under special House rules so passage would have required a
two-thirds majority.

After the House vote Saturday, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor
said the House would be in session briefly Sunday for a pro-forma
session but would not resume legislative business until Monday.

The vote was a clear House Republican response to Reid’s move
Friday evening to defeat the dueling debt hike planned crafted by House
Speaker John Boehner.

The Senate voted Friday 59 to 41 to reject Boehner’s debt hike
plan. All Senate Democrats voted to kill Boehner’s bill. Several
conservative Senate Republicans also voted against Boehner’s bill,
presumably because it would increase the debt ceiling.

The House approved the Boehner’s debt hike bill Friday evening on a
218 to 210 vote. No Democrat voted for the legislation. All but 22 House
Republicans voted for it.

After the Senate voted Friday to kill the Boehner plan, Reid then
moved to cut off the Senate debate on his own debt hike package. The
Senate will vote Sunday morning around 1 a.m. on this motion.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Saturday on the Senate
floor that 43 Senate Republicans have pledged to block Reid’s bill when
it comes to the Senate floor.

It will only require GOP 41 votes to block Reid’s bill and
continue the Republican filibuster.

McConnell said Reid’s debt hike bill “isn’t going anywhere.”

Reid, also speaking Saturday on the Senate floor, said he offered
his plan as the basis to begin talks with Republicans. “We welcome
compromise,” Reid said, adding “we have heard very little from
Republicans.”

McConnell has so far declined to enter negotiations with Reid on a
compromise. Democratic senators said McConnell has also urged Senate
Republicans to refrain from talks with Democrats on a debt ceiling
compromise.

Congressional staffers have speculated that McConnell’s reluctance
to enter into immediate talks with Reid is motivated by a desire to
avoid embarrassing Boehner and also because of the sharp criticism he
received from many Republicans several weeks ago when he offered a
compromise package to end the debt ceiling impasse.

It is unclear if McConnell will be willing to begin talks with Reid
after the Senate votes early Sunday to block Reid’s bill.

Reid’s own plan would cut spending by $2.4 trillion over ten years
and allow for passage of a $2.4 trillion debt ceiling increase.

Boehner’s bill would have raised the debt ceiling by $900 billion
this year and $1.6 trillion next year. The initial $900 billion debt
ceiling increase would require Congress to pass $917 billion in spending
cuts through the imposition of caps on discretionary spending.

Approval of the second tranche of $1.6 trillion would require
passage of $1.8 trillion in spending cuts in entitlement programs and
passage by the House and Senate of the balanced budget amendment which
requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers.

It is still assumed on Capitol Hill that the final debt hike
package is likely to blend aspects of the Boehner and Reid plans, but it
may be several more days before that compromise emerges — if it does.

The U.S. has already reached its $14.29 trillion debt ceiling.
Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has said that Congress must pass
legislation increasing the debt ceiling by August 2, this coming
Tuesday.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$]

By   || July 30, 2011 at 20:25 GMT
Category: All, Mkt News || Tags: || 0 comments || Add comment

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