Ceridian/UCLA: Nov Pulse Of Commerce Index +0.1% vs +1.1% Oct

By Ian McKendry

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers
and consumers increased 0.1% in November, following a 1.1% increase in
October, data from the trucking industry showed Tuesday.

The seasonally adjusted Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index,
which tracks diesel fuel purchases by over-the-road trucks has rebounded
slightly after showing weakness over the summer but is still up only
0.9% on a year-over-year basis.

“The combined effect of the positive October and November data was
not enough to offset the summer weakness,” PCI chief economist Ed Leamer
said in the report.

Leamer also said there was a divergence between the PCI and real
retail sales which indicates that retailers are better managing their
inventories this year and there will be fewer post-holiday bargains.

“Although real retail sales in December may be constrained by low
inventories, the season could turn out great for the bottom line of
retailers since higher prices may more than offset lower volume,” he
said.

But GDP growth may be slower because of the reductions, he said.

“As far as inventories are concerned, as measured by the PCI, this
quarter is not shaping up to be very good,” Leamer said, adding that PCI
is suggesting fourth quarter growth to be between 0.0% and 1.0%.

The inventory contribution to GDP in the third quarter was revised
down to -1.1% which accounted for most of the downward revision in GDP
to 2.0% from 2.5% between the advance and final estimate, Leamer said.

Regionally, the Mountain states (Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana,
Nevada, New Mexico and Wyoming) increased the most in November at 2.1%,
and the Pacific (Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington) saw
the biggest decrease, falling by 3.4%.

The PCI index is compiled by tracking credit card purchases of
diesel fuel by trucks on major trucking hubs.

** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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