ForexLive US wrap: Troika draft leaves observers doubtful

  • Trokia Draft: Greece promises to cut 150,000 employees by 2015, 15,000 this year. GDP expected to fall as much as 5% this year, return to growth in 2013 (!), medical spending to be slashed to 1.5% of GDP from 1.9%. public sector must shed 5 employees for every new hire, minimum wage to be cut 20%
  • Reuters: Italian GDP fell more in Q4 than the 0.2% it fell in Q3. No signs of improvement in Q1
  • Greek party leaders meeting for over 5 and a half hours (and counting)
  • S&P: Greece rating will stay low after selective default; dent unsustainable after debt swap; credit conditions getting worse in Italy, France. US risks further downgrade if no fiscal plan
  • Swiss nuclear plant shut down after glitch
  • San Fran Fed’s Williams favors more MBS buying if economy slows
  • ECB says has not yet decided to contribute to Greek bailout
  • German deputy FinMin: Worryingly little progress in Greece since 2010; no German plan B for Greece
  • Eurogroup to meet tomorrow evening in Brussels, IMF’s Lagarde to attend
  • Ireland wants concessions if ECB aids Greece
  • S&P 500 rises 0.2% to 1350
  • US 10-year note yield unchanged at 1.98%
  • WTI rises 0.50 to $98.92; gold falls $12 to $1733

EUR/USD traded in a fairly narrow range (1.3221/1.3285) but it did so in very choppy fashion during the overlap of London and New York. We tested both ends of the range several times in rumor driven trade while awaiting the outcome of the Greek debt talks. Late in the session, a draft of the agreement made most observers dubious that Greece will be able to live up to very ambitious targets, especially with its appalling track record of missing ambitious targets.

Greek leaders remain squirreled away, trying to pound out agreement on finer points and have been at it since 15:00 GMT.  They’ll likely emerge moments after I have to leave…

Barriers at 1.3300 were heavily defended today by a German bank while traders shared whispers of Asian buying on dips into 1.3220s and 30s. Putting two and two together, it seems like China is back in the DNT business.

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