EUR/USD: Risk-reward would seem to favour buying dips

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We’ve been stuck in a 1.30/1.33 range for the last 4 weeks but I’m coming around to the point of view, that the break when it comes will be a bullish one, and today could be the day. If we do actually get a passable deal on the Greek debt restructure, as seems now to be the case, then what hasn’t been able to go down should go up! The market is still very short and a clean break above that 100-day MA at 1.3310 would set off alarm bells amongst the macro short community. I favour buying any 50 pip dips over the next 24 hours, just in case that big short-cover kicks in.


All|Asia Pacific


Sean Lee


  1. As a newbie I’m just wondering honestly here, how do technicals play into EUR/USD when the ECB just changed the deal on all greek bond holders and moreover all EU country bond holders?

  2. i would consider closing above 1.331 short term bullish too. till this happens I am bearish and will be shorting this pair also at the 100 dma level.

  3. the volume on eu the past hour is just too much to ignore. someone big is definitely selling into this rally.

  4. 80 pips in one hour….very strong trend…I agree with Hoon!

  5. just waiting for europe session open what will happen with eurusd

  6. Hey Sean, are you looking to take profit or tighten your stop around the 1.35 level if the short’s start a massive cover, or are you thinking with the bears being pushed out it could be a bull’s market?

  7. Sean, good analysis, agree completely. If one looks at the big picture in EURUSD it just touched the 50% fibo of its rise from the Jan lows (1.2974 = 50% of 1.2626 – 1.3221) on Friday and bounced strongly off it. Keeping in mind the January effect, this tells us that the Euro is now turning higher. It will definitely take out the recent high at 1.3221 and at some point this week it will aim for 1.3435, the next big Fibo level. Of course, expect some zig-zag, there’s never a straight line in FX!

  8. Hi Chachi, any sharp short-covering rallies are good medium term selling opportunities imho. I don’t see anythg positive happening for the EUR this year and going long in mid 1.30’s doesn’t make sense to me. Not sure what levels will be, best wait and see what evolves rather than trying to guess now where it might jump to (great pseudonym btw :) )


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