EUR/USD: Risk-reward would seem to favour buying dips

View Comments

We’ve been stuck in a 1.30/1.33 range for the last 4 weeks but I’m coming around to the point of view, that the break when it comes will be a bullish one, and today could be the day. If we do actually get a passable deal on the Greek debt restructure, as seems now to be the case, then what hasn’t been able to go down should go up! The market is still very short and a clean break above that 100-day MA at 1.3310 would set off alarm bells amongst the macro short community. I favour buying any 50 pip dips over the next 24 hours, just in case that big short-cover kicks in.

2012-02-19T22:36:16+0000

All|Asia Pacific

EUR/USD

Sean Lee

8 Comments

  1. As a newbie I’m just wondering honestly here, how do technicals play into EUR/USD when the ECB just changed the deal on all greek bond holders and moreover all EU country bond holders?

  2. i would consider closing above 1.331 short term bullish too. till this happens I am bearish and will be shorting this pair also at the 100 dma level.

  3. the volume on eu the past hour is just too much to ignore. someone big is definitely selling into this rally.

  4. 80 pips in one hour….very strong trend…I agree with Hoon!

  5. just waiting for europe session open what will happen with eurusd

  6. Hey Sean, are you looking to take profit or tighten your stop around the 1.35 level if the short’s start a massive cover, or are you thinking with the bears being pushed out it could be a bull’s market?

  7. Sean, good analysis, agree completely. If one looks at the big picture in EURUSD it just touched the 50% fibo of its rise from the Jan lows (1.2974 = 50% of 1.2626 – 1.3221) on Friday and bounced strongly off it. Keeping in mind the January effect, this tells us that the Euro is now turning higher. It will definitely take out the recent high at 1.3221 and at some point this week it will aim for 1.3435, the next big Fibo level. Of course, expect some zig-zag, there’s never a straight line in FX!

  8. Hi Chachi, any sharp short-covering rallies are good medium term selling opportunities imho. I don’t see anythg positive happening for the EUR this year and going long in mid 1.30’s doesn’t make sense to me. Not sure what levels will be, best wait and see what evolves rather than trying to guess now where it might jump to (great pseudonym btw :) )

Top

© Copyright 2014 ForexLive™  |  Advertise With Us  |  Login To Comment  |  Sitemap

HIGH RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange trading carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage creates additional risk and loss exposure. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange, carefully consider your investment objectives, experience level, and risk tolerance. You could lose some or all of your initial investment; do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Educate yourself on the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions.

ADVISORY WARNING: FOREXLIVE™ provides references and links to selected blogs and other sources of economic and market information as an educational service to its clients and prospects and does not endorse the opinions or recommendations of the blogs or other sources of information. Clients and prospects are advised to carefully consider the opinions and analysis offered in the blogs or other information sources in the context of the client or prospect's individual analysis and decision making. None of the blogs or other sources of information is to be considered as constituting a track record. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and FOREXLIVE™ specifically advises clients and prospects to carefully review all claims and representations made by advisors, bloggers, money managers and system vendors before investing any funds or opening an account with any Forex dealer. Any news, opinions, research, data, or other information contained within this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment or trading advice. FOREXLIVE™ expressly disclaims any liability for any lost principal or profits without limitation which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. As with all such advisory services, past results are never a guarantee of future results.