By Brai Odion-Esene

WASHINGTON (MNI) – The U.S. Energy Information Administration
Thursday slightly lowered its forecast for how much OPEC members will
make from oil exports this year and in 2013, although it still
maintained its expectation that revenues for the influential oil bloc
collectively will be above $1 trillion.

Based on projections from its May Short-Term Energy Outlook, the
agency forecasts nominal OPEC net oil export revenues in 2012 will be
$1.15 trillion, a downward revision from the $1.17 trillion projected
last month.

Still, this would be the second straight year that OPEC oil revenue
broke above the $1 trillion mark, as the group earned $1.03 trillion in
2011, aided in no small part by high oil prices.

At the time of writing, WTI NYMEX crude was trading at $97.19 per
barrel and in a range of $96.08 to $97.69 so far on the day. Brent crude
was trading at $112.91 per barrel.

The EIA estimated in its energy outlook that WTI spot prices will
average $104 per barrel in 2012 after averaging $95 per barrel last
year.

The cartel’s revenue from oil exports is projected to dip slightly
in 2013, falling to $1.12 trillion. The estimate last month was for
export revenues of $1.13 trillion in 2013.

So far this year — from January to April — the EIA estimates
nominal net oil export revenues for OPEC to be $381 billion.

Of those earnings, oil heavyweight Saudi Arabia is said to have the
largest share, with the EIA estimating OPEC’s dominant member took in
$117 billion in nominal oil export revenues in the first four months of
the year.

The growth in revenue for OPEC nations is not surprising given the
record levels at which the group has been pumping oil, exceeding the 30
million barrel per day ceiling agreed to in December last year.

According to a Platts survey, OPEC production rose by 320,000
barrels per day to 31.71 million b/d in April from 31.39 million b/d in
March. Output from Saudi Arabia was 9.95 million barrels per day in
April, up 50,000 barrels from March.

OPEC itself reported Thursday that total crude oil production
averaged 31.62 million barrels per day in April, according to secondary
sources, also an increase of 320,000 from the previous month.

It said Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and Angola crude oil
production experienced increases in April, while Iran crude output
decreased. OPEC crude oil production, excluding Iraq, stood at 28.60
million b/d in April, up 105,000 b/d from the previous month.

OPEC Net Oil Export Revenues

Country Nominal ($Billion)

2011 2012 2013 Jan-Mar 2012

Algeria $63 NA NA $22
Angola $68 NA NA $25
Ecuador $10 NA NA $4
Iran $95 NA NA $29
Iraq $71 NA NA $26
Kuwait $85 NA NA $33
Libya $13 NA NA $15
Nigeria $90 NA NA $32
Qatar $57 NA NA $21
Saudi Arabia $312 NA NA $117
UAE $101 NA NA $35
Venezuela $60 NA NA $21
OPEC $1,026 $1,154 $1,117 $381

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

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